Fesenko: China is not Russia’s ally in the war against Ukraine, but it is taking advantage of its consequences
18 August 18:38
Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko commented on China’s role in the war in Ukraine in his commentary for Komersant, emphasizing that Beijing’s position is complex, multidimensional and not identical to Russia’s.
Main points:
- This is not China’s war: Beijing did not initiate the conflict, and although its position is close to Russia’s – especially in interpreting the causes of the war – it is not an ally.
- China has officially called for an end to the war since 2023, although it calls it a “conflict” or “crisis,” which rhetorically coincides with Moscow’s position.
- China’s peace plan is abstract, but it includes a ceasefire. This idea echoes Donald Trump’s proposals.
- China does not recognize the annexation of Ukrainian territories, including Crimea and the regions seized in 2022.
- Beijing does not supply weapons to Russia, although it allows the supply of dual-use goods. According to Fesenko, such goods are also coming to Russia from Europe, bypassing sanctions.
- China is making money from the war, taking advantage of Russia’s economic dependence, but avoiding direct involvement.
- A defeat of Russia or a victory of Ukraine is not beneficial for China, as it would be perceived as a victory for the United States.
- China is not interested in an excessive rapprochement between Russia and the United States, especially if Trump becomes the main peacemaker.
- Ukraine can tactically take advantage of China’s position by supporting the idea of convening an international conference to end the war on compromise terms, not on the basis of unilateral concessions to Russia.
Fesenko emphasizes that China’s position is not unambiguous: it is closer to Russia, but does not oppose Ukraine as an ally. This opens up space for diplomatic maneuvers.
According to Fesenko, China is acting cautiously, maneuvering between the rhetoric of peace and the benefits of war. But strategically, Beijing is playing a long game:
“China is looping until it throws a noose around the Russians’ neck. It will not save Russia if it loses, but it will not allow it to get too close to the United States. As a result, Russia is becoming more and more dependent, and China is just waiting for the moment to finally consolidate its advantage.”
This means that Ukraine has a chance to use Chinese caution as a diplomatic resource – especially in negotiations where the balance between the West and the Global South is key.
