Fico issued an ultimatum regarding electricity for Ukraine: what is known
21 February 16:10
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said he may initiate the termination of emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine if oil supplies to Slovakia are not resumed.
According to "Komersant Ukrainian", he wrote about this on social media.
According to Fico, if oil supplies are not resumed by Monday, he will ask Slovak companies to stop emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine.
Fico said that Slovakia has been helping Ukraine since the beginning of the war, accepting about 180,000 Ukrainians on its territory and providing humanitarian support. At the same time, he accused the Ukrainian side of stopping energy supplies.
“First, he (Zelensky – ed.) stopped gas supplies to Slovakia, which caused us losses of €500 million per year. Now he has stopped oil supplies, which has caused us additional losses and logistical difficulties,” Fico said.
In addition, Fico said he refused to support a new military loan for Ukraine, citing his country’s position.
How critical is this for Ukraine?
At the same time, Daria Orlova, an analyst at ExPro Consulting, noted in a comment to RBC-Ukraine that Slovakia accounts for about 18% of Ukraine’s electricity imports, while Hungary accounts for 45%.
According to her, in February, Hungary and Slovakia together provide about 70% of electricity imports, which is a significant amount – more than 1.4 GW of additional capacity.
At the same time, the analyst stressed that Ukraine will be able to partially redistribute volumes through other directions, although it will be difficult to completely replace them. She also suggested that the statements of the Slovak side are currently rather political.
Can supplies really be stopped?
Orlova noted that EU energy system operators do not make such decisions independently, as their work is coordinated within the European association ENTSO-E.
The Druzhba oil pipeline
As a reminder, the transit of Russian oil through Ukraine to Slovakia and Hungary stopped at the end of January after Russia damaged the Druzhba oil pipeline pumping station. As a result, Ukraine was forced to stop transporting oil to refineries in these countries.
To secure raw materials, Slovakia and Hungary began to use strategic reserves and turned to Croatia with a proposal to organize supplies through its port and oil pipeline. At the same time, official Zagreb agreed to help, but without transporting Russian oil.
On February 18, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó announced that Budapest was suspending diesel fuel supplies to Ukraine until Russian oil transit resumed. The Slovak government supported this position.
Ukrainian oil market experts Serhiy Kuyun and Oleksandr Sirenko noted that Hungarian and Slovak diesel fuel accounts for up to 10% of the Ukrainian market, so its possible loss can be compensated by supplies from other sources.
On February 18, the Slovak government also allowed for the possibility of stopping electricity exports to Ukraine if the oil pipeline is not restored. And on February 19, About Hungary reported that Budapest is considering an additional restriction—stopping supplies to Ukraine not only of diesel fuel, but also of electricity and gas.
