Gennadiy Ryabtsev: “Due to the actions of regulators, Ukraine imports only 10% of the available electricity”
19 November 2024 10:00
EXCLUSIVE
After another round of missile attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, the situation remains critical, especially in the Odesa region. Ukraine has introduced blackout schedules, and the Russians, according to some reports, have accumulated enough missiles to strike Ukraine again whenever they want. "Komersant Ukrainian" asked energy expert Gennady Ryabtsev to comment on the current situation.
The expert identifies three problems on which the energy situation in the country depends.
Damage to thermal power plants (TPPs)
The recent missile strikes have reduced the power reserve of generating facilities, and it will take a long time to restore the operation of TPPs.
“Power units cannot be restored in a few days. This will require new repairs and a thorough assessment of the extent of damage,”
– Mr. Ryabtsev emphasized.
Damaged substations and transmission problems
Damage to substations has significantly hampered the transmission of electricity from the west to the east of the country. However, the expert emphasized that work on this problem is ongoing and it can be solved much faster than the problem of damaged thermal power plants:
“As for the resolution of transmission problems, this is a matter of the near future. In most regions, the stabilization outage schedules should be removed in two to three days.”
Despite the difficulties, Ryabtsev emphasizes that the situation in many regions should stabilize in the near future.
“Unless there are new strikes or a sharp cold snap, power supply will be restored within 2-3 days. However, Odesa region will face the greatest difficulties,”
– the expert explained.
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Electricity imports
The expert believes that one of the underestimated problems of the Ukrainian energy sector is the low volume of electricity imports. According to Gennadiy Ryabtsev, Ukraine currently uses only about 10% of the possible imports, and this significantly hinders the stabilization of the energy system.
“The National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission has not yet made a decision on setting a price cap, although all relevant experts insist that this practice should be abolished. But the regulator is holding on to it, probably under some pressure,”
– he explained.
According to him, this situation creates risks even after the grid capacity for electricity transmission from west to east is restored.
“If it is not possible to buy the required volumes of energy, no one will buy it,” he said,
– the expert emphasizes.
At the same time, Ryabtsev refutes popular myths about the artificial nature of the blackout schedules, which are allegedly introduced to ensure profitable electricity exports to Europe.
“To make sure that all this is not true, we need to look at three things. First, there are the restrictions on electricity transmission that have now arisen. Secondly, look not at the “export” tab, but at the “flows” tab on the relevant websites of European regulators. And thirdly, to pay attention to the fact that the blackout schedules were canceled yesterday in three regions, despite the fact that Burshtyn was attacked again,”
– emphasizes Ryabtsev.
Thus, the expert emphasizes that the lack of progress in electricity imports and regulatory obstacles are among the key factors that hinder the stabilization of the power system. Only by eliminating these problems will Ukraine be able to effectively use the existing potential to maintain energy security.
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Situation in the Ukrainian energy sector
on March 22, 2024, Russia resumed its attacks on the Ukrainian energy sector, carrying out one of the most massive shelling operations in the entire period of the full-scale war. In particular, DniproHES and other Ukrainian energy facilities were hit. Since then, Russia has been regularly shelling Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
For example, the Russians destroyed the Trypillia and Zmiiv thermal power plants, causing Centrenergo to lose 100% of its generation. Also, 5 of DTEK’s 6 thermal power plants were severely damaged.
After that, power outages began again in Ukraine, Ukrenergo introduced blackout schedules, and the government raised electricity tariffs by 60% at once.
At the same time, the Cabinet of Ministers decided to build two new units at the Khmelnytsky N PP and has already received approval from the relevant parliamentary committee. The Razumkov Center has criticized these plans, but some experts believe that only traitors or scoundrels are against the construction of nuclear power plants today.
Russia launched another massive attack on the Ukrainian energy sector on August 26. This time, they hit distribution and power generation systems, and the Kyiv hydroelectric power plant was also attacked.
Russia carried out the most massive shelling of Ukraine on November 17, 2023, firing 127 cruise, ballistic, and supersonic missiles and 109 attack drones. DTEK reported serious damage to its thermal power plants. The situation in Odesa and Odesa region was the most difficult: on the night of July 18, the city was partially without electricity and water. Ukraine reintroduces power outage schedules on July 18
Some experts believe that the blackouts may last until spring. And the Center for Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine recently voiced the worst-case scenario, which envisages blackouts of up to 20 hours a day.
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