Power system readiness for the summer season: between optimism and reality
10 June 2025 16:49
ANALYSIS
The temperature outside adds urgency not only to reminders from power engineers to use electricity sparingly, but also to questions such as whether the Ukrainian power system will withstand this year’s heat wave And not only with it… This is what I found out
All the interlocutors of the publication gave a positive answer to the question “Is the Ukrainian energy sector better prepared for this year’s summer challenges?”
Andriy Gerus, chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Energy, Housing and Utilities, mentioned several factors when stating that the energy system is better prepared to work this summer.
“Since last summer, more than 1,000 MW of new distributed generation has been built – solar power plants, wind farms, and gas generation. Also, dozens of projects have been implemented to protect Ukrenergo substations, which means that now it will be much more difficult to destroy or damage them. And Ukrainian power engineers have experience in dealing with crisis situations,”
– emphasizes the MP.
Darya Orlova, an electricity market analyst at ExPro agency, explained the high stress resistance of the Ukrainian power system primarily by the fact that the level of repairs of power facilities, both scheduled and emergency repairs, is quite high.
Oleksandr Kharchenko, Director of the Energy Research Center, also believes that due to the preparatory work, this summer’s energy supply will be easier than a year ago.
“If we look at objective figures, we are much better prepared. Both the Ministry of Energy and Energoatom have more correctly approached the schedule of repairs of nuclear power units. At the same time, quite a lot of additional generation has been restored. If we compare last year with this year, and if we consider 100 percent of what was damaged and did not work in thermal and hydro generation last year, more than half of it has been restored,”
– says Mr. Kharchenko.
But, as experts emphasize, there are factors that can objectively affect the operation of the power system: these are, of course, possible enemy attacks on power facilities, and the same air temperature.
The scenarios are different, but the recipe is the same: adapt and work
DiXi Group analytical center has assessed the situation on the electricity market on the eve of the high-demand season. Recently, during the presentation of the relevant analytical review, DiXi Group General Manager for Security and Sustainability Olena Lapenko presented three possible scenarios for the summer period.
- The optimistic scenario assumes that the temperature will be moderate and there will be no massive attacks. In this case, the peak consumption will not exceed 16 GW, and the available capacities of NPPs, TPPs, hydroelectric power plants and renewables will be sufficient to cover demand. The risk of outages will not exceed 5%, provided there is no new damage to generating facilities or networks.
- The medium scenario, i.e. in the event of a hot summer and no hostile attacks, envisages an increase in peak load to 18-18.5 GW. Even with a partial restoration of generation, a deficit of 10-15% may arise. At the same time, rising prices on European markets may reduce commercial imports by up to 1.5 GW, while scheduled maintenance will reduce domestic capacity availability.
- The pessimistic scenario takes into account the risk of new attacks on generation. Even in moderate weather, the deficit could reach 20% due to possible significant losses of TPPs and HPPs, the facilities most often attacked. The situation will be complicated by limited access to hydro resources and simultaneous repairs at NPPs and TPPs.
By the way, DiXi Group considers the positive scenario to be the most likely, but emphasizes the need to be prepared for any development. They also identify key priorities, such as preparing for a possible shortage, strengthening infrastructure, and further integration into the European energy space.
What contribution and from which components of the energy system to expect
“We have a fairly stable situation with the generation structure,”
– explains Oleksandr Kharchenko, Director of the Energy Research Center.
According to him, about 50-52% is nuclear generation, 10-14% – depending on how much water is available in the reservoirs – is provided by hydro generation, and about 6-10% is solar and wind generation.
“Distributed generation makes a very large contribution: somewhere between 22 and 27 percent is now covered by the so-called thermal generation, which consists of two elements. One of the elements is what we have left from the former coal-fired power units, and it is not very much. And most of this generation is small thermal power plants, primarily gas-fired, which are distributed across the country and have taken over a fairly large part of the generation today,”
– the expert notes.
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Energoatom has adapted repair schedules to summer energy needs
Interlocutors of the publication
According to Daria Orlova, an electricity market analyst at ExPro, Energoatom organized its repair campaign in such a way that its peak falls on a period when it is not so hot – May-June. According to her, we can expect that additional capacities will be added to the power system in July and August.
Oleksiy Kucherenko, Deputy Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Energy, Housing and Utilities, also calls it “good” that Energoatom has planned its repair campaign in such a way that it still has enough capacity to avoid a critical threat to energy supply.
Solar generation increased over the year
According to the Solar Energy Association, in 2024, approximately 800-850 MW of solar power plants were built in Ukraine at the expense of businesses and households. This process will continue this year. According to MP Oleksiy Kucherenko, the growth of this generation is at least 1 GW. And these capacities will be very useful in the summer.
For example, Oleksandr Kharchenko, Director of the Energy Research Center, answering the question whether there will be a deficit in the power system in the absence of new destructions of generation facilities, but in the presence of high air temperatures, said that there will be no deficit, linking it to the new capabilities of solar power plants.
“I do not expect any problems. In addition, a large number of solar capacities have been installed and the heat wave now, on the one hand, means an increase in consumption, but on the other hand, it is during these hours that its generation increases. Therefore, practically, one overlaps on the other and as a result, it eases the situation,”
– says Mr. Kharchenko.
For her part, Daria Orlova, electricity market analyst at ExPro agency, speaking about the commissioning of new solar generation facilities, draws attention to the following feature.
“There is now a tendency for people to install solar panels on their homes. This has an impact on the power system. On the one hand, it increases the production of electricity that goes into the grid, but on the other hand, it reduces electricity consumption by the population: people provide themselves with autonomous power,”
– explains the expert.
Imports from Europe will also help
Electricity imports can play an important role in stabilizing the system. According to the DiXi Group analytical center, in 2024, the volume of imports exceeded 4 million MWh, and in June, the peak was recorded – 850 thousand MWh. In April 2025, imports amounted to 325 thousand MWh. As the summer season approaches, this volume may increase to 500-800 thousand MWh per month, depending on weather conditions and the risk of new attacks.
So far, electricity imports are not critical in terms of providing additional resources. According to Darya Orlova, it is now more commercial, meaning that it is profitable for companies to import at certain hours.
“In the summer, imports can certainly increase, especially in the morning and evening to cover the deficit during peak hours. And there are sufficient technical capabilities for this. However, there may be a problem with price caps again. Even now, prices in Europe are higher in the evening than in Ukraine. And, again, there may be a problem that imports will not come in enough because of the price imbalance or emergency assistance will be involved,”
– notes Daria Orlova.
According to her, this does not affect the system much now, but in the future it may be necessary to respond quickly to price changes in neighboring markets.
Cautious optimism amid increased risks
Overall, the Ukrainian power system is much better prepared for the summer season than last year. The key factors of resilience were the commissioning of more than 1 GW of new distributed generation, optimization of repair schedules for nuclear power units, restoration of more than half of the damaged thermal and hydroelectric generating capacities, and strengthening of critical infrastructure protection. Particularly important is the growth of solar generation, which creates a synergistic effect – it is during peak consumption hours that solar electricity production is maximized due to the heat.
At the same time, Ukraine’s energy security remains directly dependent on two unpredictable factors: the intensity of enemy attacks on energy facilities and weather conditions. Even under the best-case scenario, the system will operate at its capacity limit, and the pessimistic scenario foresees a shortage of up to 20%. Therefore, successful passage through the summer period will require not only technical readiness but also flexibility in demand management, efficient use of import opportunities, and constant adaptation to changing conditions. The experience gained by power engineers during the war years will be crucial in ensuring stable energy supply even in the face of increased risks.
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Author: Sergiy Vasylevych
