Buckwheat prices are rising: Will Ukraine have to buy Russian buckwheat from Kazakhstan?
19 March 10:25
Despite concerns about a potential buckwheat shortage and rumors of imports from Kazakhstan, Ukraine has sufficient domestic reserves to supply the domestic market. At present, there is no reason to speak of a shortage of the product. Economist Oleg Pendzin stated this in an exclusive comment to "Komersant Ukrainian", explaining the actual balance between production and consumption of this grain.
Will there be enough buckwheat for Ukrainians?
According to the expert, even despite a decline in the harvest in 2025, the total volume of production and reserves is sufficient to meet domestic demand.
In 2025, the gross buckwheat harvest amounted to 70,800 tons, while in 2024 this figure reached 127,000 tons. Despite the decline in production, a shortage is not expected.
“Let’s figure out how much buckwheat we eat. Currently, the average Ukrainian consumes 3 kg of buckwheat per year. There are approximately 27 million of us right now. Take 27 million, multiply by 0.003, and we get that we need 81,000 tons of buckwheat per year. How much did we harvest in 2024? 127,000 tons minus 81,000 tons. That means we had a carryover of 46,000 tons,” explains Pendzin.
Why Ukraine Doesn’t Export Buckwheat
The economist explained that buckwheat is not a popular product on global markets, so it is mainly consumed only in certain countries.
“Because buckwheat is eaten only by Ukrainians, Belarusians… that is, we have 146,000 tons of carryover stocks left. Plus the 70,000 tons we’ve provisionally harvested this year. We get 116,000 tons. How much do we need? 81,000 tons. What kind of shortage are we talking about? This buckwheat will be enough to meet domestic needs,” says Pendzin.
What are Ukraine’s carryover stocks?
The expert also drew attention to the carryover stocks of products, which are traditionally accounted for by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy when compiling food balances.
“The Ministry has always projected, roughly—note, roughly—about three months’ worth of carryover stocks. That is, roughly speaking, there are about 20–25 thousand tons of carryover stocks in any case. We have 40 thousand tons of carryover. Why is this important? Let me explain. I’m hearing a lot of noise right now about how we’re going to have a buckwheat shortage and we’ll have to import it from Kazakhstan, and that it’ll supposedly be Russian buckwheat. Where do you see a shortage? They’re really hyping this up,” says the expert.
Why is buckwheat getting more expensive?
Despite sufficient supplies, buckwheat prices continue to rise. According to the Ministry of Finance portal, the average price of buckwheat is currently 54.07 UAH per kilogram.
Prices in major retail chains:
- Auchan — 46.90 UAH/kg
- Metro — 50.90 UAH/kg
- Novus — 50.90 UAH/kg
- Megamarket — 67.50 UAH/kg.
According to Pendzin, the price increase is not related to a shortage of the product.
“When you go to the store, you don’t buy buckwheat in a bag, do you? You buy it pre-packaged. And the price of buckwheat isn’t rising because there’s a shortage right now. It’s because, excuse me, packaging is expensive. Because of rising electricity prices. Because of blackouts. In other words, if there were the shortage that the buckwheat sellers are telling us about, the price would already be close to 90,” says Pendzin.
Why experts are talking about price increases
Previously, the Institute of Agricultural Economics attributed the rise in buckwheat prices to a reduction in planted acreage.
According to statistics:
- December 2024 — 35.19 UAH/kg
- December 2025 — 44.88 UAH/kg
- early 2026 — over 54 UAH/kg
The annual increase was 27.5%, and the upward price trend has been observed since spring 2024.
Should we expect a shortage?
Economists note that with current production volumes and stockpiles, there is no risk of a shortage. Key factors influencing prices:
- energy costs
- logistics
- packaging
- inflation.
Thus, the Ukrainian buckwheat market remains well-supplied, and the price increase is due to economic factors rather than a shortage of product.
