Investors predict lower oil prices, but it won’t hurt Russia
4 April 09:06
The well-known American investment company Goldman Sachs has significantly revised its forecasts for oil prices downward. This happened against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions and decisions of the world’s largest producers, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports citing Reuters.
Thus, Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecast for the average price of Brent crude oil this year by 5.5% to $69 per barrel, and for WTI crude oil by 4.3% to $66. The downgrade was driven by two factors:
- risks of increased supplies from OPEC countries ;
- a possible global trade war that could trigger a recession.
At the same time, investors also sharply reduced their 2026 average Brent price forecast by 9% to $62, and WTI by 6.3% to $59, warning that these updated forecasts could be lowered even further in the future.
“Risks to our lowered oil price forecast are downside, especially for 2026, given the growing risks of a recession and, to a lesser extent, higher OPEC supply,”
– Goldman Sachs analysts said in a research note.
As of six a.m. Kyiv time on Friday, the price of Brent crude was $69.59 per barrel, while WTI was trading at $66.39.
On Thursday, oil prices posted their biggest percentage drop since 2022 after US President Donald Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs on many countries and eight OPEC members unexpectedly accelerated their plan to gradually lift oil production restrictions, increasing production as early as May.
According to Goldman Sachs, the latest development demonstrated OPEC’s flexibility to quickly implement significant production increases, which reduced the likelihood of higher prices in the short term due to lower supply.
The investment bank now predicts that oil demand will grow by only 600,000 barrels per day this year, down from its previous forecast of 900,000 barrels per day, and that growth will reach 700,000 barrels per day in 2026.
Oil market experts are closely monitoring OPEC’s further steps and the development of trade relations between the world’s leading economies, as these factors can significantly affect the dynamics of energy prices in the near future.
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Should we expect problems for Russia?
Russian Urals oil is traditionally sold at a lower price than Brent and WTI – currently, its price hovers around USD 65.5 per barrel. US dollars per barrel. In addition, it is under pressure from additional factors that “legal” oil does not experience, namely Western sanctions.
However, throughout the three years of the full-scale war with Ukraine, Russia has been successfully selling its oil – its main buyers today are China and India.
Unfortunately, Goldman Sachs’ forecasts do not promise Russia any problems related to the price of oil, as it still has a very large backlash for sales. According to economic expert Oleg Pendzin, even a price of $50 per barrel is still acceptable for Russia.
“Currently, the direct cost of Russian oil production is about $37-38 per barrel. This is the direct cost. The critical figure for Russia is the sales price of $45,”
– the economist explained exclusively for .
This figure still looks unrealistic for market analysts, based on the current circumstances. Therefore, the only more likely way to hurt Russia over oil is to increase sanctions, including secondary sanctions against its buyers. The point of this step is to make it physically impossible for Russia to sell large volumes of oil and thus receive funds to continue its aggressive war of aggression.
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