historians have named the date of the end of the empire called the Russian Federation
12 July 2024 10:13
The topic of the collapse of the Russian Federation has been raised since the beginning of Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Experts and historians echo the well-known scientific truth that all empires disappear sooner or later.
According to historians, there are indeed quite significant factors that can cause internal crises and loss of state control over the territories of the Russian Federation.
Komersant ukrainskyi
Our generation will see the final collapse of the empire called Muscovy.
The Russian Federation is the last empire
Empires have always collapsed. And Russia is no exception, says Yuri Felshtinsky, a Russian-American historian and researcher of modern Russian history, in a special interview with Kommersant Ukrainsky
Today it is clear that the USSR did not disintegrate. Several more territories were to secede from it. And although this process has been suspended since Putin came to power, it may resume in the event of another crisis in the Russian government
Yuriy Felshtynsky
In an exclusive interview, historian and now an officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexander Alfyorov assures that the process of disintegration of the Russian Federation has been observed for 100 years. Starting with the loss of the war to Japan in 1905 and the Ukrainian Revolution of 1917 and up to the present day.
The mothballed empire within the Russian Federation is now trying to restore its greatness, but its disintegration is irreversible according to historical laws. Today, we are dealing with the last efforts to preserve the empire from collapse due to its aggressive actions in the outside world
Oleksandr Alfiorov
So, if the disintegration of the Russian Federation is a regularity, let’s look at the factors that will contribute to this process.
The social factor as the disintegration of the Russian Federation
Today, there are about 190 peoples in Russia. “Some of them have their own indigenous territory, history, language and religion – different from that of Moscow,” says historian Alexander Alfyorov. All of these are factors for secession from the empire. “We saw this in Chechnya before Putin’s henchmen came there,” says Alferov.
There is also the example of Dagestan, where social protest takes the form of religious protests. The Kremlin called the armed attack on 23 June on synagogues and Orthodox churches a terrorist attack. However, it is not for nothing that the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, called for the punishment of the extremists’ relatives after the events in Dagestan, saying “we will kill them all”.
Chechnya and Dagestan are very promising regions in terms of secession from the Russian Federation. And the Russian-American historian predicts their secession in the first place.
First, the Chechen Republic, Dagestan, and Ingushetia will secede. Then, obviously, Tatarstan. Along national borders
Yuriy Felshtynsky
However, if we consider the separation of territories through protests, this scenario is unlikely. The Kremlin is keeping these regions in a tight grip.
Yes, many people expected a riot to break out in Russia. This will never happen. The last time Russians rioted was on Bolotnaya Square in 2011-2013
Andriy Bulgarov
Moreover, on the contrary, several million people of the creative class who could have come out to protest left Russia. The other Russia that has remained is made up of people below the poverty line, where alcohol flows like a river. And they live by the principle of “steal – drink – go to the so-called “SVO“, concludes publicist and TV presenter Bulgarov.
The opinion of Russian liberals is opposite to historians. They still believe in the ability of Russians to rebel. In particular, this opinion is held by the leader of the international movement “Speak Up!” Andrey Sidelnikov, Ilya Yashin, who was sentenced to 8.5 years in prison for his words about Bucha, and Vladimir Kara-Murza, who is currently in a Russian prison. At one time, Alexei Navalny also considered protests to be an effective means of putting pressure on the authorities and called for participation in them. However, any manifestations of dissent have been suppressed by Putin’s regime to date.
Hunger riots and economic collapse
The sharp drop in oil and gas prices, sanctions, economic isolation and deteriorating living standards could lead to instability and social discontent. However, the population’s patience is high. In return, Russia is proposing to mass-produce “social vodka” for “beggars”.
This summer, hunger riots may break out in Russia. A large area has been affected by floods, and there are problems with the budget, social benefits and food supplies. It may start in central Russia and then somewhere in Siberia
Andriy Bulgarov
However, in the third year of the great war, NATO predicts that Russia has adapted to life in a war economy and is ready to fight for at least 3-4 years, Voice of America reports, citing an alliance official.
The factor of political crisis and military coup
One of the factors in the collapse of Muscovy may be the disagreement in the elites, Oleksandr Alfiorov is sure. After all, the imposition of sanctions, including personal ones, makes the elites think that it is necessary to change the leader . And as you know, Russian rulers rarely die of natural causes. And such a mechanism for changing power is quite likely. However, the dictator is taking a step forward.
Putin has recently begun to appoint not only top officials but also close friends and relatives to senior positions. This shows that the elevators of power are closing for others. And the elite, which is under the full control of the Kremlin, will try to overthrow this government
Oleksandr Alfiorov
Putin did not remove inconvenient people from their posts for nothing. In particular, he replaced Defence Minister Shoigu and Security Council Secretary Patrushev. Publicist Andrei Bulgarov is sure that Putin did everything possible to prevent a rebellion in the army.
Belousov, a non-military man, was put in charge of the Russian generals who could theoretically carry out a military coup, so that he could not accumulate the Russian soldier, the elite, so to speak, around him
Andriy Bulgarov
Yes, after Prigozhin’s rebellion, the Kremlin is watching generals with special attention. Let us recall the Commander of the Russian Airborne Forces, Colonel-General Mikhail Teplinsky, who has considerable support in the Russian army. In August 2023, he disclosed the data on losses. He also reported to senior military leaders on problems in the Russian army. And the latest information about Teplinsky is that he is likely to be eliminated after a strike on the command post of the Dnipro troop group of the Russian Armed Forces. There has been no refutation from Russia.
Military defeat on the battlefield as a collapse of Russia
As soon as the Russians lose the front in Ukraine – and this may happen in July-August – the structure of Russia itself will begin to crumble
Andriy Bulgarov
All the interlocutors of Kommersant Ukrayinsky
This is exactly what Russia experienced in 1905, when it lost the war to the Japanese Empire. And so Ukraine’s victory is one of the factors of disintegration that they [Russians – ed
Oleksandr Alfiorov
So against this background of fears, Putin’s rhetoric is becoming more radical. And the Kremlin is ready to isolate itself, just as the USSR, the Russian Empire and the Moscow Kingdom did in their time. This is the only warm bath in which they can continue to control their subjects and slaves uncontrollably, adds Alfyorov.
“Black swan” for russia: when can russia disintegrate?
Our generation has been watching the collapse of Russia for the past 10 years. Andrey Bulgarov calls the annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbass the beginning. The full-scale invasion accelerated this process.
The collapse of Russia could happen in the next year or two. Today’s Russia is a wild chimera of the Soviet Union, Czarist Russia, and even the Mongol-Tatars. Russia has no idea. Because the idea of expanding and killing everyone is the principle of cockroaches. And the country cannot exist in this form
Andriy Bulgarov
therecan be a lot of “black swans” as factors in the collapse of Russia, says Bulgarov. However, we will recognise the same swan for sure after the end of the empire.
Everything rests on Putin alone, and we have to wait for his death. This is the trend in the assessment of the situation among Russian liberals, as traced by the publicist Andrey Bulgarov. And there may be some logic in this.
If you look at the behaviour of Russian generals and officials, you get the impression that they all live in the shadow of the “emperor”, i.e. Putin. And as soon as he disappears, the whole system will disappear
Andriy Bulgarov
For many Russians, Putin is like a constant, like God. That’s why he doesn’t need to prove his legitimacy. Everything rests on him alone, says Bulgarov. So it is likely that if Putin disappears, everything will fall apart.
The Russian-American historian believes the answer to the question of when the next collapse of the Russian Federation will take place is quite simple:
The collapse of the Russian Federation will happen either at the end of the war or at the end, against the backdrop of the war, which will provoke Russia’s final defeat
Yuriy Felshtynsky
Therefore, it is quite likely that our generation will witness the collapse of the empire called the Russian Federation in the coming years .
The author: Anastasia Fedor
