The Cabinet of Ministers has shown two salary forecasts: how much Ukrainians will receive in 2026, 2027 and 2028
8 August 2025 13:52
The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has presented optimistic forecasts for wage growth in the coming years. According to official estimates, the average salary of Ukrainians may increase by about 5 thousand hryvnias annually until 2028. This is reported by "Komersant Ukrainian" with reference to the Cabinet of Ministers’ resolution.
Official government forecasts
Resolution No. 946 of August 6, 2025, approved the Forecast of Economic and Social Development of Ukraine for the period 2026-2028. The document contains detailed macroeconomic indicators, including wage dynamics.
According to the basic estimates, in 2025 the average gross salary of full-time employees will amount to UAH 24,389. This is the starting point for further forecasts.
Two development scenarios
Government analysts have developed two scenarios for the economic situation:
The optimistic scenario assumes a significant improvement in the security situation starting in 2026. Under this scenario, wages will grow as follows:
- 2026: uAH 30,240 (24.0%)
- 2027: uAH 35,268 (16.6%)
- 2028: uAH 39,758 (12.7%)
The pessimistic scenario takes into account the continuation of full-scale aggression. Even under these conditions, growth is projected:
- 2026: uAH 30,032 (23.1%)
- 2027: uAH 34,808 (15.9%)
- 2028: uAH 39,436 (13.3%).
Reality versus nominal growth
However, according to experts, wage growth is not keeping pace with inflation. The jump in inflation has already caused real wages to fall below pre-war levels.
Nominal wages increased by 53.8% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. Inflation during this time was 54.0%.
As a result, real wages fell by 0.3% during this time.
