Coffee, chocolate, cocoa: how much will the cost of these products increase in 2025
31 December 2024 14:17
Coffee prices on the New York Stock Exchange have set a new all-time high in the last 50 years due to growing fears of global supply shortages due to environmental problems in Brazil and Vietnam. In addition, climate change has threatened the existence of the most popular type of coffee.
Media reports say that Brazil holds 40% of the global coffee market and produces both Arabica and Robusta. Vietnam, which is the second largest coffee exporter, is almost entirely focused on the cheaper Robusta variety, and last year it accounted for 38% of the world’s production of this type of coffee.
Rising prices due to difficulties in these two key countries have made coffee one of the hottest commodities this year. The new record price for coffee comes against a backdrop of declining overall wholesale food prices on global markets, which remain below the level reached in early 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, “soft commodities” such as coffee, cocoa, and orange juice are the best performers among commodities this year.
[Komersant analyzed why these products have risen in price and what will happen to prices in Ukraine in 2025.
Prices for coffee and chocolate may rise significantly in Ukraine
Due to record prices for arabica on world exchanges caused by crop failure and supply problems, the cost of coffee drinks could rise by 80-100%. According to economist Oleh Pendzyn, who spoke to , in February 2025, the price of latte and cappuccino may reach 100 hryvnias, and espresso – 70 hryvnias.
“Today, a pound of coffee costs $3.5 on the stock exchanges. This is a significant jump that affects the global market. However, we also see other factors in the cost of coffee drinks in Ukraine, including the use of additives that reduce the quality of the final product,” the expert said.
According to Pendzin, sellers try to keep prices affordable for consumers by adding chicory or cereal mixtures, which helps to reduce costs. At the same time, the expert is convinced that there will be no significant increase in prices for mass-market coffee due to the limited purchasing power of Ukrainians.
Cocoa and chocolate: should we expect a price increase?
The situation with cocoa beans is even worse than with coffee, as the geography of their cultivation and climate problems coincide. This has already led to an 80% increase in the price of high-quality dark chocolate with a high cocoa bean content.
“Manufacturers are changing the recipe by adding palm oil, soy or other substitutes to avoid a sharp jump in prices. But this affects the quality of the product,” Penzin emphasized.
How to choose the right coffee
Despite the financial difficulties, many Ukrainians do not give up the habit of drinking coffee every day. Oleg Pendzin also reminded that excessive coffee consumption can have a negative impact on health.
“Coffee has become an integral part of the consumption culture. For some people, it even serves as a psychological stimulant. Two to three cups of coffee a day is the optimal amount, as excessive consumption can leach calcium and affect metabolism,” the expert said.
The economist advises consumers to choose both coffee and chocolate more carefully, paying attention to the product’s composition.
“If the composition contains more impurities than cocoa or coffee, it is no longer what you expect from a quality product,” he summarized.
Thus, the rise in coffee and chocolate prices that we are seeing today is the result of serious environmental problems in the producing countries, particularly in Brazil and Vietnam, as well as climate change, which has threatened the sustainable development of these commodity markets.
According to forecasts, the cost of coffee and coffee drinks in Ukraine may increase by 80-100% by February 2025, which will certainly affect consumers’ budgets. The rise in cocoa bean prices, in turn, is driving up the price of chocolate, which has already taken the form of an 80% increase in price.
At the same time, manufacturers are forced to change the recipe by adding cheaper substitutes, which reduces the quality of the final product. Ukrainians should expect a further increase in the cost of these goods, but it is important to be attentive to the composition of the products in order not to buy low-quality products containing excessive amounts of additives.
Author – Daryna Glushchenko
