Khamenei is dead, and Putin is counting the benefits: what the Kremlin will gain and lose – expert analysis
4 March 20:06
The death of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei was a serious signal for the Kremlin. The loss of one of his key allies is forcing Vladimir Putin to review his strategic plans and is causing internal anxiety among Russia’s ruling and security elites. According to experts, the weakening of Russia’s allied flank and chaos in decision-making could directly affect the course of the war against Ukraine and Moscow’s international policy. How does the Kremlin really feel after Khamenei’s death? Will the loss of an ally influence Putin’s decisions in the war against Ukraine? And can Russia benefit from the conflict in the Middle East?
What is happening in Putin’s bunker
Internal tensions are growing in Russia after the death of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei. According to the Telegram channel Kremlinskaya Tabachka, churches in the country have been instructed to pray for 40 days “for the repose of Khamenei’s soul” and “for the salvation of Russia from troubled times.”
“To be honest, the prayers for Khamenei surprised us. He was, after all, a non-believer, a Muslim. But the order came from above, the ayatollah was a very important ally, so we will pray for 40 days for the repose of his soul. We cannot refuse to do so. We will also pray more for our president, so that everything will be fine with him in these difficult times,” said a source close to Patriarch Kirill.
The Kremlin noted that these prayers should also help “identify and neutralize traitors in Vladimir Putin’s entourage,” the active search for whom has already begun. This indicates a high level of anxiety among the Russian authorities and security forces.
Grigory Tamar, an IDF officer, in an exclusive comment for
“Of course, the loss of such an ally, both politically and economically, is a very strong blow to Putin. And look, he is left without allies. They are being knocked out one by one. Venezuela is finished. There will be unrest in Cuba too. The scenario there is slightly different. But it’s also a matter of time in Iran. That’s how Vladimir Vladimirovich is left without allies. With only his briefcase. His faithful ally is his briefcase,” says Tamar.
Experts note that the weakening of Russia’s allied flank and the Kremlin’s growing internal anxiety may directly influence Moscow’s strategic decisions in the war against Ukraine and in the global geopolitical game, making the Russian regime more unpredictable.
What could Putin gain from a war in Iran?
A distraction of global military mechanisms would be a plus for the Kremlin. Military expert Roman Svitan in a comment
“Now, virtually all military attention, at least military intervention, will be shifted to the Middle East. Of course, this will also affect Ukraine. However, the headquarters currently planning this operation will reduce planning for the delivery of weapons to all other theaters. Here, it will be necessary to focus only on Europe,” says Svitan
Svitan also emphasized that Russia could directly participate in the conflict by supplying weapons to Iran.
“Putin may directly begin participation, that is, by supplying weapons to Iran through various mechanisms, and this will also increase the expenditure of weapons by the participants in the process themselves, the Israelis, mainly the Americans, and even more so now that they are trying to involve the Europeans. In other words, Putin is indeed one of the beneficiaries of this whole process,” Svitan noted.
Thus, the death of Ali Khamenei showed that even for one of the most isolated and unpredictable regimes in the world, the loss of an ally can be a powerful shock. For the Kremlin, this means not only internal anxiety and tighter control over Putin’s entourage, but also a potential shift in strategic priorities. At the same time, Moscow can use the conflict in the Middle East to its advantage — distracting the attention of global military forces and even participating by supplying weapons. Khamenei’s death not only intensifies the Kremlin’s paranoia, but also makes Russia’s actions more unpredictable, both in the war against Ukraine and in the global geopolitical game.
