Bread in Ukraine will go up in price: reasons
29 August 19:30
Ukrainians will have to pay more for social products this fall. This was told by the head of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation Leonid Kozachenko in an interview with YouTube channel "Komersant Ukrainian".
“Bread prices will definitely increase. By 5-10%, maximum by 15%,” Kozachenko said.
According to him, the rise in cost is due to both harvest indicators and the economic situation.
“Here and the cost of grain, and the exchange rate, and logistics. It all affects the final price for the consumer,” he explained.
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Why bread in Ukraine is becoming more expensive – the main factors
Raw materials are becoming more expensive
Prices for the main components of bread – wheat, flour, historically high costs of energy, logistics, yeast, oil and sugar – are rising. This has a direct impact on the cost of the final product.
Energy costs and logistics
Rising electricity and fuel rates increase production and delivery costs. Some ovens consume up to 50% of energy, which adds 1-3% to the cost of bread.
Rising wages
Due to staff shortages, flour companies are forced to remunerate employees above the level of previous years – on average by 20-30%.
Low margins and risk of unprofitability
Profitability in the industry has decreased to 3-5% (previously – up to 10%). Many companies are operating on the edge of profitability or at a loss and are forced to revise prices.
Demand for plain bread
Demand for cheaper, ‘plain’ breads with standard recipes is increasing, while sales of premium varieties are declining.
Speculative expectations and grain storage
Farmers are holding rye in anticipation of higher prices. While domestic sales are falling, this raises the cost of the raw material for bread. Some companies are already switching to importing rye, for example from Turkey, where it is already more expensive.
Forecasted rise in prices
Experts predict a rise in bread prices up to 15-20% by the end of 2025, the average price may reach 55 ₴ per loaf. This dynamics is confirmed by industry leaders.
War and global risks
Ukraine is an important exporter of grain. The blow to logistics, the blockade of ports and the closure of agricultural areas due to the war have significantly reduced grain supply, which pushes global prices up. This also puts pressure on the domestic Ukrainian market.
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