The end of the energy truce, or what awaits Ukraine in February
2 February 10:38
On February 1, the so-called energy truce ended. At least, this was the date previously announced by the Kremlin as the deadline. Since January 30, Russia had refrained from striking Ukrainian energy facilities, with the exception of the Donetsk region, where an air strike on gas infrastructure was recorded.
Thus, the temporary pause in attacks began on Friday night. At the same time, Russia intensified its strikes on logistics. And it is committing demonstrative crimes. Such as the strike on a bus in the Dnipropetrovsk region on February 1. A group of “suicide bombers” deliberately flew into a bus carrying miners, killing 12 people.
What does the end of the energy truce mean for Ukrainian cities and infrastructure? Will Ukraine be able to ensure a stable energy supply? And how beneficial was this truce for Russia? Find out in this article.
The illusion of a truce: historical experience and modern warfare
Even during World War I, despite massive losses and the use of chemical weapons, the parties temporarily adhered to certain rules, allowing holidays to be celebrated even under fire. Read about it in an exclusive commentary
“It was the last war where there were elements of a kind of chivalrous approach, albeit at the cost of enormous losses. And in the current war, we see only lies, provocations, and manipulations,” Tamar emphasized.
He added that such temporary truces in modern conflicts, even if they are formally declared, often have nothing to do with real responsibility or diplomacy.
“The Russians feel no moral responsibility,” Tamar noted.
Even in the case of Israel, during the Second Lebanon War, the country’s authorities deliberately refrained from striking Lebanon’s civilian energy infrastructure, even if there were combat units there. Such actions were explained not only by the legal responsibility of the state, but also by the moral obligation not to harm the civilian population.
“And who are they fighting here? Ukrainian cities, hungry people who have nothing to do with this,” Tamar stated.
According to him, even from a military point of view, strikes on civilian infrastructure are ineffective, and from a moral point of view, they are completely unacceptable.
Energy truce in Ukraine: who really benefits
The energy truce has shown that Russia is capable of temporary pauses only where it is profitable, and even these “pauses” quickly end with new strikes. Ukraine continues to rebuild its energy infrastructure, but an important question arises: can we count on similar truces in the future, or is this just a tool for the aggressor to demonstrate its “humanity” to the international audience?
The possible week-long moratorium on Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy sector, announced by US President Donald Trump, is not a significant concession by Moscow, according to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). According to their estimates, even such a temporary regime could play into Russia’s hands: Russian troops would have time to stockpile drones and missiles for future strikes, while Ukraine would cease attacks on Russian energy facilities.
However, as experts and bloggers note, the situation looks different in practice. According to Russian blogger Kamikaze Di in an exclusive comment
“Where Russians cannot restore their capabilities — heat, electricity, water, internet — Ukraine receives assistance from its partners: the Czech Republic, Poland, and other countries. Generators, equipment — all of this is open and public. Why don’t China or North Korea supply Russia with electric generators or water? Why are there no spare parts for the internet? There aren’t any, and there won’t be any,” said Dmitry.
Russia’s energy problems are caused not only by Ukrainian drone strikes, but rather by worn-out equipment. Therefore, subsequent drone strikes on Russian cities could prove critical.
What next?
Moscow has no intention of adhering to even a conditional “ceasefire,” and attempts to create the appearance of a pause are political in nature.
“Therefore, no pause by Russia can be perceived as a good gesture. It is just balancing and demonstration. They are trying to create the appearance of peace without changing the real situation,” the blogger concluded.
So, even if the energy truce is formally in effect, in practice it does not change the course of the war. Time and the support of partners continue to work in Ukraine’s favor, while Russia is forced to balance between its internal crisis and the need to create the appearance of control.
