The end of the “office republic”: how Yermak’s possible dismissal will reformat the management system
20 November 20:12
ANALYSIS FROM 
Servant of the People MP Fedir Venislavsky said that the head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, should resign. The reason is that the head of the OP allegedly appears on the Mindich tapes under the pseudonym “Ali Baba” and is involved in a corruption scandal.
Some experts have already said that Yermak’s resignation could even “play into the hands” of the President of Ukraine, who is now losing both his personal rating and the trust of international partners amid the NABU and SAPO Midas special operation.
Komersant asked political analysts whether the resignation of the head of the Presidential Office could improve Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s rating, ease domestic political and public tensions, and increase the trust of the United States and the EU in our country.
Expert Volodymyr Fesenko explains that the dismissal of the head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, can only partially and temporarily reduce political tensions. Even if the investigation by anti-corruption authorities is favorable to the Bankova, this step will not remove all claims against the president and will not “zero out” conflicts around the vertical of power.
The logic is simple: resignation can take some of the blow, but it can just as easily open a new front – directly against Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Possible resignation in the OP: what will determine the effect
The expert sets a key fork in the road: it is the results of the official investigation that will determine whether Yermak’s possible resignation will be a “steam valve” or the “first domino.”
If the investigation implicates Yermak or his entourage, his dismissal could increase Zelenskyy’s vulnerability. The opposition will see this as confirmation of a systemic problem, not a purge.
If there are no direct accusations by NABU, the risks for the president are reduced. In such a situation, part of Zelenskyy’s team, especially in parliament, sees Yermak’s resignation as a way to reduce pressure on Bankova Street and shift the focus of the crisis to the government. In other words, the tension is not disappearing, but is being redistributed.
That is why Yermak’s dismissal will not completely solve the president’s problems, because in this case Yermak will be under attack, and then the road to a strike against Zelenskyy himself is open.
Removing Yermak from power: why it is dramatic for Zelenskyi
Not only politics but also the psychology of power is at work here. For more than five years, Yermak has become a key partner for the president: politically, administratively, and personally.
Zelenskyy and Yermak have truly merged as a political couple. Fesenko formulates this harshly and precisely:
For Zelensky, Yermak’s dismissal would be like cutting off his right hand.
That is why the decision is painful for the president: it breaks the usual architecture of trust and control. And that is why the resignation, if it happens, will not be a voluntary “image improvement” but a reaction to strong external pressure.
Thus, dismissal is not a technical replacement of a manager, but a decision with a high price:
- loss of the closest “filter” of information and decisions;
- the risk of internal destabilization in the OP;
- a signal to the elites that the system may be subject to sudden reassemblies.
Therefore, even if this step (dismissal of Andriy Yermak – ed.) looks like a response to a public demand, it will be a painful transformation of loyalties and management flows inside.
What will change in the public administration model after this?
Political scientist Yevhen Mahda interprets Yermak’s possible resignation as a chance to return to constitutional balance:
“Instead of an office presidential republic, we will have a parliamentary-presidential republic, as provided for in the Constitution… because of the personal factor of the omnipotent head of the OP, an office presidential republic has been formed. This is bad.
Magda’s key point is that the excessive concentration of real power in the OP deforms the system, makes it dependent on one figure, and weakens institutional capacity. For the economy, this means more manual control and less predictability.
Yermak’s resignation and management shock: what can happen to the main mechanisms of the state
Volodymyr Fesenko emphasizes the practical side of the problem: Yermak is currently the hub through which much of the country’s governance has been channelled.
A lot of things went through Yermak… he is, in fact, the second most influential person in the country, not de jure, but de facto. Therefore, his replacement will have a significant impact on the functioning of the top level of government.
Fesenko also passes on a question he hears from MPs and foreign diplomats:
“Will our system of public administration at the top level crumble if Yermak is replaced?
His answer is restrained: not completely, but temporary disruptions are inevitable. It will require redistribution of communication channels, formal and informal powers, and reconfiguration of management information flows.
Will the government gain more freedom after Yermak’s ouster?
One of the few potential advantages of the resignation is the increased autonomy of the Cabinet of Ministers. Fesenko directly says that the government and Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko may get more independence, as some personnel and political decisions will no longer go through Yermak.
But then a critical “but” appears: everything depends on the successor. If the new head of the OP is not so influential or cannot quickly integrate into the management machine, the government will get space. If a figure comes in who restores the same logic of centralization, the effect on autonomy will be zero.
For economic policy, this means different trajectories: either the Cabinet of Ministers will make decisions faster, or the system will be in a transitional pause for some time.
The main problem is where to look for successors
Fesenko calls this the first and key node:
The problem now is who to replace? Zelensky has become one with Yermak to such an extent… the dismissal is almost a mini-revolution.
The key variable, according to Fesenko, is who will replace him. If it is a technocrat with an understanding of the processes, the system will recover faster. If it’s a “political trophy” or a compromise figure without authority, manual control will only intensify and the crisis will drag on.
According to him, there is only one risk for the state and the economy: a personalized system does not survive personal shocks well. The more control is tied to one person, the more expensive it is to lose him or her, even if he or she is politically toxic.
Why the resignation of the head of the Prosecutor General’s Office does not end the crisis: expert opinion
Fesenko emphasizes that Yermak is an intermediate target for the opposition.
The opposition wants Zelensky to be fired… Yermak is an intermediate goal for them. Therefore, Yermak’s dismissal does not end the political crisis. On the contrary, they will launch an attack on Zelensky himself,” the expert says.
“In economic terms, this means that even after the resignation, the political risk premium does not disappear. Investors, partners, and markets will look not at the fact of dismissal, but at whether the logic of governance has changed and whether a new round of turbulence is being unleashed.
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Thus, the dismissal of Andriy Yermak can reduce the tension around Zelensky in only one case: if the investigation does not provide direct grounds for attacking the president. In this case, the resignation will work as a temporary political safeguard and partially refocus attention on the government.
But strategically, this is not the end of the crisis, but a transition to a new phase: with the risks of managerial failure, a struggle for influence on Bankova Street, and possible intensification of attacks on the president himself. In short, this is not a switch, but a switch. And the system will continue to click for a long time.
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