Climate transformation: will Ukrainian farmers have to grow tropical fruits?
11 August 17:27
ANALYSIS FROM 
Heavy rains and sweltering heat, frosts and droughts – nature regularly “gives” us these weather surprises. They are still called “weather anomalies” and have reason to become “weather norms” after a while. Farmers are among those who are already feeling and will continue to feel their impact. What should Ukrainian agribusiness representatives prepare for, [Kommersant] found out.
This year’s wheat and corn harvest in Ukraine may be higher than expected if weather conditions are favorable. This forecast was shared earlier this week by Taras Vysotsky, Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment and Agriculture.
A few days ago, agricultural scientists were less optimistic in their forecasts: this year, Ukrainian farmers will still harvest slightly less grain than expected in early spring. The main reason is the same: extremely unfavorable weather conditions. In this case, in the southern and partially central regions of the country.
How climate change affects the agricultural sector
Climate change primarily affects crop production. Farmers are already feeling this impact: a decrease in soil moisture inevitably affects yields. However, livestock farming is also subject to this pressure, as it depends on the feed base. This is emphasized by Maryna Tsymbaliuk, a climate specialist at the NGO Ecodia.
“In Ukraine, there is a tendency to increase the area with insufficient rainfall during the growing season, the time during which a plant grows and develops. The climate has already become more arid throughout the country. More frequent and longer periods of abnormal heat with almost unchanged rainfall, both in summer and in spring and summer, leads to an increase in the frequency of droughts and their spread to the western and northern regions,” the expert notes.
Which areas are most at risk of drought? Maryna Tsymbaliuk continues
“The area of the territory with “arid”, “dry” and “very dry” water balance is gradually increasing in the south and east of Ukraine. This means that farmers will increasingly face a shortage of moisture in the soil, which will negatively affect the harvest,” the expert says.
According to the report of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, by the middle of the century, due to various factors, including climate change, there will be a decline in the yield of Ukraine’s main crops, including barley, corn, and sunflower. However, according to Maryna Tsymbalyuk, winter wheat yields in the north and northwest of Ukraine could increase by 2050 by 20-40% compared to 2010.
In general, to effectively counteract the negative changes and at the same time take advantage of the favorable aspects of climate change, such as the potential increase in yields of certain crops, it is necessary to adapt the agricultural sector to the effects that are already being felt and reduce greenhouse gas emissions to slow down the pace of climate change and reduce the scale of future risks,” emphasizes Maryna Tsymbalyuk.
How farmers can adapt to new climate conditions
In the face of climate change, it is critical for Ukrainian farmers to focus on choosing stress-resistant plant varieties that can withstand extreme weather conditions. Maria Belkina, head of the agriculture department at NGO Ecodia, points this out. In addition, according to her, farmers are increasingly giving preference to winter crops.
This trend is not new. For example, Polish farmers often choose winter crops over spring crops. This approach allows them to use more moisture that accumulates in the soil during the cold period, reducing the risks associated with climate change,” explains the expert.
Agroforestry is another important area of adaptation of the agricultural sector to climate change. According to Mariia Belkina, this system includes various ways of combining forest plantations with agricultural crops. For example, forest crops are integrated directly into agricultural land. Forest belts protect the soil from weathering and water washout, improve the microclimate and increase biodiversity. Modern tillage technologies such as mini-till and strip-till are also part of conservation agriculture, with their main goal being to minimize mechanical intervention in the soil. Mini-till involves shallow and spot tillage. Strip-till is tillage only in narrow strips where sowing is planned, while the row spacing is left untouched. This method contributes to better moisture accumulation, faster warming of the rows in the spring and significantly reduces erosion losses. One of the key technologies in the modern agricultural sector is precision farming.
Maria Belkina, head of the agriculture department at Ecodia, continues.
“Precision farming helps both to adapt to climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fertilizers. This methodology is based on the use of specialized sensors, satellite images, and analytical programs to monitor soil and plant health. This allows farmers to optimize water and fertilizer consumption, which not only increases production efficiency but also significantly reduces the negative impact of agriculture on the environment. “In parallel, early warning systems are being developed that inform farmers in advance of impending droughts, allowing them to take timely preventive measures,” the expert notes.
The most obvious way to adapt to climate change, which is actively promoted in Ukraine in the state agricultural policy, is to develop and restore irrigation. But, according to Mariia Belkina, the question arises whether we have enough water for irrigation.
Ukraine is a country that has little water supply. Among 20 European countries, Ukraine ranks 17th in terms of water availability and 124th in the list of 181 countries in 2014 (The World Bank Group, 2020). During the twenty-first century, Ukraine (except for river basins within the Ukrainian Carpathians) will experience a 25-50% decrease in water flow. Therefore, irrigation cannot be the only solution; it is important to approach the issue of adaptation in a comprehensive manner. Over the past few months, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, with the support of partners, has been assessing the vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate change, so we hope that this assessment will lead to a comprehensive adaptation document, not just the development of irrigation. Because now communities are already facing the fact that the use of water for irrigation can exacerbate the problem of drying up and disappearance of rivers,” says Maria Belkina.
Will climate change help grow the third grain crop?
Despite the widespread belief that climate change opens up opportunities for growing a third grain crop in Ukraine, this is unlikely in practice. This is the opinion of Maria Belkina, head of the agriculture department at NGO Ecodia. The main problem here is the lack of moisture in the soil.
While winter wheat stocks are still more or less sufficient, spring wheat is already suffering from spring and summer droughts, which leads to crop losses and losses for farmers who are forced to seek government support. Rising temperatures alone do not create the conditions for increased yields; on the contrary, in the face of moisture shortages, it only worsens the situation. Instead of creating new opportunities, climate change threatens even two traditional grain harvests, not to mention the third,” the expert emphasizes.
“Climate change is also fueling the discussion about the possibility of growing tropical fruits in Ukraine. Is it possible? Maria Belkina’s opinion
Even if the warm climate allows for the cultivation of exotic fruits, it is important to take into account other factors. Tropical plants need a stable temperature without sudden changes, as well as special air and soil humidity. Whether Ukraine is able to provide such conditions is an open question,” the expert says.
In addition, she says, we should not forget about potential risks. “Before introducing new crops, it is necessary to thoroughly investigate whether it will harm the soil. It is important to make sure that these varieties do not become invasive, i.e., do not start spreading uncontrollably, displacing local species. Special attention should be paid to water consumption, as many tropical plants love moisture, which can exacerbate the problem of water shortages.
So, before you dream of growing your own bananas or mangoes, you should shift your focus to growing drought-resistant crops. This way, we can also prepare for climate change and new weather surprises.
Author – Serhiy Vasylovych
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