There will be no fuel market collapse: analysts estimate the likelihood of mobilisation of transport drivers
15 May 2024 09:59
EXCLUSIVE
On 18 May, Ukraine will face a transport collapse due to the application of the mobilisation law to international transport drivers. Particular emphasis is placed on the collapse of the oil transportation market, which is key to the country’s economy. The owners of such companies claim that drivers are refusing to travel to the border because they fear that they will be removed from the route by representatives of the TCC. Komersant asked fuel market experts whether such a scenario is to be expected.
Oleksandr Sirenko, an analyst at Naftorynok consulting company, first of all, points out that the volume of fuel transported by road is minimal now.
“This would have been critical in 2022, when, in fact, we were filling the fuel market mainly with petrol tankers, i.e. importing petroleum products by road. This is not the case now. Road transport is returning to its [low] percentage of supply. I wouldn’t call it a collapse. We are now mainly transporting by rail,”
– says the expert.
Energy expert Gennadiy Ryabtsev agrees with him. He emphasises that there will obviously be problems, especially in the first weeks of the new law. However, this will not have a major impact on the fuel market.
“No, such a radical forecast is not true. But of course, problems can arise, and they will continue to arise until the relevant procedure is worked out. Queues may form, including at the border. But I think that all the problems are solvable, and they will not affect the supply of oil products to the market,” he said,
– he said.
The expert reminded that Ukraine has recently managed to cope with other challenges in the fuel market.
“The problem will be solved. Just like in previous times, when there were problems with the passage of tankers and the supply of petroleum products across the western border in general. There were problems with the Shlyakh system, which marks border crossings in the forward and reverse directions. But they have been resolved. The situation will be shaky, but there will be no fuel collapse. It will not affect prices,”
– assured Gennadiy Ryabtsev.
Recently, the Southern Defence Forces reported that sea exports in Ukraine once again prevail over river exports.
