When will the war in Ukraine end: new IMF forecast
19 July 2025 22:12
Ukraine is likely to have a greater need for external financing in 2026 due to the war, which will last longer than previously thought.
This was stated by Gavin Gray, IMF mission chief in Ukraine, during a discussion at the Center for Economic Strategy, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
In his speech, he mentioned the budget declaration of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine for 2026-2028, which defines two scenarios. If the security situation improves in 2026, military spending will amount to 1.8 trillion hryvnias, while if the war continues, it should be increased by 750-800 billion hryvnias.
“The main question is: what scenario are we in? The Budget Declaration envisaged two scenarios… All partners involved in supporting Ukraine are following the events on a daily basis. We see a scenario where more funding may be needed,” Gray said.
The IMF mission chief emphasized the importance of clarifying this issue before the draft budget for 2026 is submitted to the parliament on September 15.
“We want to revise the estimate of the financing gap. Perhaps it will coincide with the current estimates, or perhaps it will be higher. If Ukraine needs more funding, we will need to present a convincing justification. We need stable numbers and clear positions,” the IMF representative said.
