Kremlin is preparing a scenario of blackmail and scaling up the front: expert talks about trading territories
7 July 2025 16:14
ANALYSIS FROM 
After failing in Kharkiv and Sumy regions, Russia intensifies its offensive in the Pokrovske and Novopavlivske directions, while simultaneously massing troops in Kursk region. on July 5, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine recorded a record number of combat clashes on the frontline – 170, with the largest number of them in the Pokrovske direction. For comparison: on July 4, there were 136 such clashes. This indicates a gradual increase in the intensity of the fighting. Is Russia really preparing “territorial blackmail” before the new negotiations? How realistic is the enemy’s breakthrough into the Dnipro region and what does the activity of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Kursk region mean – read more in the article
We should expect the expansion of the theater of operations to include new territories. First of all, this will happen in Sumy and Kharkiv regions, and there will be an attempt by the enemy to break through to the territory of Dnipropetrovs’k region. About this in an exclusive commentary
The possibility of scaling up the theater of operations will be used by the Russian side as military and political pressure on the Ukrainian leadership during the so-called Istanbul meetings on ending the war in Ukraine. This is what we should expect not only in the summer, but also in the fall, – Dmytro Snegiryov
According to the expert, despite significant losses, the Russian army does not give up attempts to break through in key areas of the front. The situation in the Pokrovske direction is particularly dangerous at the moment.
After establishing control over the Pokrovsk – Kostiantynivka, Pokrovsk – Mezheova highways, the main task of the occupiers is to advance along the flanks in order to create an operational encirclement of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, – Dmytro Snegiryov
According to the expert, in case of a breakthrough in the direction of Malynivka, the occupiers will have a flank route to Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk through the village of Novoekonomichne.
The occupiers are well aware that the possibility of storming Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad directly with frontal attacks is practically nil. They have echeloned defenses, plus urban development and a very serious industrial zone. All this, accordingly, will lead to an increase in the losses of the Russian occupiers,” says Snegiryov
He also recalls that during the battles for Bakhmut, the occupiers’ losses amounted to about 60 thousand personnel. The situation was similar during the battles for Kurakhove. According to various estimates, the occupiers’ losses there amounted to up to 30 thousand.
Threats to the Dnipropetrovs’k region
At the same time, the enemy continues to intensify its actions in the Novopavlivka direction, which borders on the Dnipro region. In recent days, Russian armed groups have intensified their attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses on the outskirts of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovska oblast.
The main breakthrough attempts are focused on the Novopavlivka direction – through it, the enemy is advancing from Donetsk region to the borders of Dnipropetrovska oblast. Russian troops are operating in small assault groups supported by armored vehicles, motorcycles, air strikes with KABs and drones, including tactical FPV drones, – Dmytro Snegyryov
Analysts, including the OSINT platform DeepState, have recorded a reduction in the distance to the administrative boundary line with Dnipropetrovs’k region – from 2 km in early June to less than 100 meters at the end. But the fact of crossing the line has not been confirmed.
If the Russians manage to seize the tactical initiative and advance to the borders with Dnipropetrovs’k region, this will be used as an element of military pressure not only on Ukraine but also on the United States during the negotiation process, – Dmytro Snegiryov
Plans to “exchange” territories
According to Snegiryov, Russia deliberately creates the impression that it can change the direction of attacks and threatens to seize new territories. The occupiers in Donetsk region will have to storm the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, which is four large industrial cities: Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Kostiantynivka and Druzhkivka, Snegiryov notes. He reminds us that the enemy stormed Bakhmut, which is much smaller, for 9 months, suffering enormous losses. And here we are talking about dense urban development, a huge industrial zone and prepared positions.
Realizing that they can storm these cities for more than a year, the Russian dictator may use another scenario – the possibility of seizing certain territories of Sumy and Kharkiv regions and breaking through to the Dnipro region for the purpose of a so-called exchange. Capturing a part of Sumy region, for example, may be a subject of “bargaining” in Russian logic: we stop the offensive here, and you withdraw from Donetsk region,” Snegirev suggests.
However, according to analysts, these scenarios have not yet been realized: the pace of the Russian army’s offensive is much lower than the Kremlin’s expectations. So far, the Russian invaders have not achieved tactical results in Kharkiv and Sumy regions. Putin’s intention to create a so-called buffer zone has been defeated.
According to the Russian dictator’s plan, the depth of the Russian troops’ advance in Sumy and Kharkiv regions should have been up to 20 km, but they managed to advance a maximum of 6 km,” Snegirev adds
Defense in Russia as well
It is noteworthy that the Russian army is forced to move its reserves inside the Russian Federation in order to hold its own territories. Thus, according to the civil initiative “Pravova Sprava”, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to be active in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation. Units of the 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 44th Army Corps have been redeployed to the area of the village of Guievo.
This indicates that the operational reserves of Russian troops from the operational and tactical groups “Bryansk” and “Belgorod” (their total number is about 100 thousand people) are no longer enough to try to restrain the Ukrainian advance in the Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod regions, – Dmytro Snegiryov
In addition, elite units of the 137th Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division of the Russian Federation have been redeployed to the village of Gogolovka. This division is considered one of the most combat-ready. The information about the redeployment of the Russian army’s operational reserves from the rear areas of the Russian Federation to the Kursk region refutes Putin’s statements about full control of the situation in the Kursk region, Snegiryov said
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, more than 30 military clashes have occurred in the Kursk region over the past day alone.
This indicates that the Russian occupiers are trying to fulfill their tasks of ousting the Ukrainian Defense Forces, but, as we can see, in vain,” Snegiryov concludes.
“Thus, the scale of hostilities is not only a military but also a political tool of the Kremlin. Russia is trying to increase pressure on Ukraine before a new round of potential negotiations. At the same time, the occupiers’ tactical successes remain limited, and the Ukrainian Defense Forces are not only holding the line but also threatening the Russians on their territory. The key events of the coming weeks will unfold around Pokrovsk, the Novopavlivka direction, and the administrative border with the Dnipro region: this is where the course of the war will be determined in the coming months.
Author – Anastasia Fedor
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