Crimea — Alberta: how Trump is repeating the Kremlin’s 2014 scenario
10 February 20:04
Russia’s annexation of Crimea demonstrated how the spread of certain propaganda and related norms can foreshadow the undermining of a state’s sovereignty.
On January 30, Axios reported that representatives of US President Donald Trump’s administration had held three meetings since last spring with far-right separatist activists from the Canadian province of Alberta who are advocating for the region’s independence.
As US Treasury Secretary Scott Besent said in an interview with podcaster Jack Posobiec, people in this territory want a referendum.
“Albertans are very independent people. There are rumors that they may hold a referendum on whether they want to remain in Canada or not. They have wonderful resources,” he said, adding that Alberta is a “natural” partner for the US.
A wealthy province
Alberta has an area of 661,848 km² (larger than France) and a population of 4 million (similar to Norway).
It is one of Canada’s most economically developed provinces with an English-speaking population (remember that English-speaking and French-speaking Canadians coexist in the country).
Alberta leads Canada in job creation, population growth, and housing construction.
In 2023, Alberta’s output was $350 billion, accounting for 15% of Canada’s GDP.
Its economy is comparable to that of developed countries such as Denmark or Finland.
The province has a developed energy sector: oil and gas production. Although most residents work in the service sector, Alberta has a significant industrial base and knowledge economy.
At the same time, most of Alberta’s exports go to the United States and consist of 70% oil and gas.
Separatism on two fronts
It is the wealth of the region that has become a key factor for those seeking Alberta’s independence.
The movement for provincial independence became active in 2025. Its main leaders are Jeffrey Rath and Mitch Sylvester.
Jeffrey Rath is a flamboyant and provocative politician. He often wears a cowboy hat, gives interviews on Fox News and podcasts, calls Ottawa a “tyranny,” and Alberta’s liberation a “human rights issue.”
According to him, it is not Alberta that needs Canada, but Canada that needs Alberta.
Rath was filmed in a bar swearing, spreading conspiracy theories about a “gay conspiracy in power” and making other crazy statements.
Less flamboyant is another leader of the province’s secession movement, Mitch Sylvester. The 70-year-old businessman is the main organizer of the petition for a referendum on independence. He also holds mass separatist events in various cities across Alberta. Sylvester has radical views on immigration and federalism in Canada.
Both activists are sympathetic to President Trump. They have been to Washington and held meetings with representatives of the US presidential administration. In particular, with officials from the US State Department, and in some cases at the cabinet or advisor level to the head of state.
Despite all this, the number of supporters of Alberta’s separation from Canada is about 15-16% of the local population.
Many of them see this as a “symbolic” protest against the central government, rather than a real plan for independence.
US vs Canada
The Trump administration welcomed Alberta separatist leaders to the State Department, including in secure facilities (SCIF).
According to the American media, the meeting participants focused on Alberta’s potential independence, trade agreements, a $500 billion credit line, and other issues.
The White House and US State Department statement said:
“We meet regularly with ‘civil society groups,’ and no commitments or support were made.”
However, the separatists themselves (especially Rath) describe the Americans as “very enthusiastic” about an independent Alberta.
“They respect us more than Ottawa,” said Jeffrey Rath.
“Meetings between American officials and Alberta separatists are unprecedented in the history of US-Canada relations,” says Canadian political scientist Daniel Beland.
He notes that events in Alberta could be used to weaken Canada and its prime minister, who opposes Trump.
Crimea — Alberta
The Trump administration’s policy toward Alberta resembles Russian narratives about Crimea.
Even before the appearance of troops in Crimea, Russia had been preparing the ground for years: state media promoted marginal politicians who questioned Ukraine’s existence as a state.
In 2008, Putin told Bush that Ukraine was an “artificial state” and promised to support separatism in Crimea and eastern Ukraine.
Today, Trump and his entourage are saying that Canada should be the 51st state of the United States.
While the entire civilized world condemned Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 as a gross violation of international law, the actions of Donald Trump’s administration toward the Canadian province of Alberta raise disturbing parallels that undermine the principles of sovereignty and stability among allies.
This dangerous mistake effectively undermines trust between democracies by making sovereignty a bargaining chip. Repeating Putin’s steps is not a victory, but a recipe for chaos that could spread to other regions, undermining the global order.
Author: Asif Aliyev
