Critical Resource: Why Ukraine Could Lose 20% of Its Harvest
31 March 17:02
ANALYSIS FROM 
Shortages and rising prices—these two often interrelated factors are shaping the situation surrounding fertilizer supplies to farms this spring. "Komersant Ukrainian" investigated how all of this is affecting farmers’ operations.
Only 37%—that is how much of last year’s fertilizer needs for farmers could be met by domestic Ukrainian production. The biggest problems are with nitrogen fertilizers, of which Ukraine is producing nearly half as much as in 2021. For example, the shortage of ammonium nitrate for the spring planting season in Ukraine was estimated at 190,000 tons as of early March 2026.
There are many reasons for the decline in fertilizer production, but all of them are connected in one way or another to the war. As the government notes, some enterprises remained in the occupied territories after 2022, while the rest face challenges such as power supply and import issues. There are also restrictions on the handling of explosive substances: the import of calcium ammonium nitrate by merchant ships into Ukraine is prohibited. This also complicates the supply of nitrogen fertilizers to farmers.
The situation has been further exacerbated by the consequences of the war in the Middle East. As is well known, the cost of not only oil but also gas has risen. And these are essential raw materials for the production of those very same nitrogen fertilizers.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian agricultural sector is heavily dependent on imports. This is highlighted by Oleksandr Zakharchuk, head of the Department of Investment and Material-Technical Support at the National Scientific Center “Institute of Agrarian Economics” and corresponding member of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine.
“Over 40–50% of nitrogen fertilizers are purchased abroad. This is important because a shortage of these specific fertilizers significantly limits crop growth and yield. Potassium fertilizers are also important, but their shortage is less threatening, as it is partially offset by reserves in the soil. Phosphorus fertilizers show moderate growth in consumption, and local reserves are usually sufficient. However, their shortage also negatively affects plant growth,” explains the expert.
So, the forecast from government officials does not sound very encouraging: a fertilizer shortage could lead to a 20% drop in yields. There are plenty of other figures and estimates that support this forecast.
Farmers aren’t panicking; they’re working
Farmers are already calling this year’s agricultural season the most expensive in recent years and predict that it will be no less challenging than the first year of the war. And the rising costs of fuel, seed, and, of course, fertilizers add weight to these assessments. Oleksiy Novokhatko, a farmer from Trypillya in the Kyiv region, shares his experience. He grows winter rapeseed and winter wheat.
“The price of fertilizers has risen significantly. For example, I used to buy nitrate for 25,500 UAH per ton, including delivery. In the fall, it was 22,500, and now it’s 32,500. So, that’s a significant difference,” says the farmer.
Many farmers were able to stock up on fertilizers earlier—at more or less acceptable prices. But many are now having to replenish their supplies at higher “March” prices.
According to calculations by industry associations, fertilizer prices have jumped by an average of over 30%. They also point out another nuance. While fuel and lubricants account for approximately 9–12% of production costs, fertilizers account for about 30%. And that’s still an optimistic estimate. Farmer Oleksiy Novokhatko continues.
“Fertilizers are the main component of production costs. In my opinion, they account for about 40–50% of all expenses. That is significantly more than fuel—which ranks somewhere around 3rd or 5th. Fertilizers, however, consistently rank first,” notes the farmer.
Given these price realities, farmers have few options. Those who previously stocked up on some fuel and fertilizers can probably wait a bit, hoping prices will drop. But most are simply forced to cut costs. Oleksandr Chubuk, head of the “Chaika-2” farming enterprise, speaks to this as well .
“Right now, everyone is trying to save as much as possible, cutting back on everything. Consequently, less fertilizer will be applied, and the production process will be simplified. Because of this, there is a likelihood that yields will be lower. It can’t be any other way, given our current financial constraints,” the farmer states.
Farmer Oleksiy Novokhatko agrees with him.
“Crop yields and quality may depend on how much fertilizer is applied. For example, instead of food wheat, we might harvest feed wheat,” says the farmer.
The Ukrainian Agribusiness Club Association believes that rising production costs and the inability to apply sufficient amounts of fertilizer will inevitably lead to changes in crop structure and a reduction in planted acreage.
High-risk areas
According to estimates by researchers at the Institute of Agricultural Economics, crops with high nitrogen requirements are likely to suffer the most due to fertilizer shortages.
The following are in the highest-risk zone:
– spring grains – spring wheat and corn;
– oilseeds – sunflower;
– sugar beets;
– potatoes.
Oleksandr Zakharchuk, head of the Department of Investment and Material and Technical Support at the National Scientific Center “Institute of Agrarian Economics” and corresponding member of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine, explains further.
“Spring wheat, corn, and sunflowers will be the first to suffer. These crops traditionally require intensive nitrogen fertilization in the spring, and a deficiency of nitrogen leads to a significant reduction in yield. For other crops—specifically spring barley, oats, and rye—the negative impact of nitrogen deficiency may be less severe. Thus, if fertilizer issues persist, yields of primary spring crops—cereals and oilseeds—will be most severely affected, with yield shortfalls potentially reaching 10–20% or more, depending on conditions and the timing of fertilizer delivery. Winter wheat will also suffer from insufficient spring fertilization, which disrupts grain filling and protein content, potentially reducing yields by 10–15%,” the expert notes.
According to him, the extent of losses will also depend on weather, logistics, and the fertilization of winter crops carried out in the fall of 2025.
Resources for Assistance
Agricultural communities are addressing requests for assistance to the government. The All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, in order to stabilize the situation in the mineral fertilizer market and provide farmers with resources for the planting campaign, is, for example, asking the government to facilitate the swiftest possible restart of the Odesa Port Plant’s facilities for the production of ammonia and urea. Especially since, according to agricultural representatives, Ukraine currently has the resources to quickly launch its own fertilizer production.
“According to market analysts, as a result of strikes on thermal power plants and their temporary shutdowns, gas consumption has decreased and gas reserves are 3 billion cubic meters higher than last year, which makes it possible to urgently begin production of nitrogen fertilizers,” the association notes.
Farmers are also proposing to abolish import duties on urea, ammonium sulfate, ammonium nitrate, and calcium ammonium nitrate. This is also emphasized by Oleksandr Zakharchuk, head of the department at the “Institute of Agricultural Economics.”
“The main countries supplying fertilizers to Ukraine are EU member states, specifically Poland, Bulgaria, Germany, and Lithuania, as well as Turkey, China, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. Therefore, there is an urgent need to remove existing logistical barriers—suspend export duties on imported fertilizers, allow maritime imports, and diversify supply,” the expert notes.
The Ukrainian Agribusiness Club Association believes that the abolition of import duties on nitrogen fertilizers by the end of 2026 will allow prices to be maintained or even reduced in some cases to $25–35 per ton of product, and will also help farmers build up reserves.
Author: Serhiy Vasylevych
