The Kursk factor: how the Ukrainian offensive affected Putin’s position on negotiations
15 August 2024 14:40
ANALYSIS
After the start of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ offensive in Kursk, the international community has been observing a sharp change in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric regarding the possibility of negotiations with Ukraine. While he used to constantly declare his readiness for negotiations and voice his conditions for launching this process, after the appearance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kursk, the Russian leader said that any talks were out of the question.
“Apparently, the enemy is seeking to improve its negotiating position in the future. What kind of negotiations can we talk about with people who indiscriminately shoot at civilians or try to create a danger to nuclear energy facilities?”
– putin said.
Putin’s refusal to engage in dialogue caused a wave of discussion among experts and analysts. "Komersant Ukrainian" turned to leading Ukrainian experts to understand the reasons for this turn of events.
Political expert Yevhen Magda points out that it is incorrect to talk about a change in Putin’s position on the talks, as the Russian leader’s previous readiness for them was only apparent, and his demands were ultimatum. Nevertheless, according to the expert, Putin’s current position is determined by the situation in the Kursk region.
“Ukraine’s actions in the Kursk region are an obvious humiliation of Putin. This is logical and there are no additional questions. Putin does not like to be humiliated, so he acts in this way. It does not surprise me at all,”
– the expert emphasises.
Military analyst Mikhail Zhirokhov assesses the situation from a slightly different angle. He believes that the change in Putin’s position is due to the loss of a key argument in the negotiation process. And for some reason, this argument was the amendments to the Russian Constitution.
“His main trump card and the main part for negotiations was knocked out of him: give us back what we wrote in the constitution, part of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions that we do not control, and then we will talk to you,”
– zhyrokhov explains. However, the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Kursk offensive has confused all the cards.
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“Now Kursk does not fit into this formula. What he was proposing is no longer relevant, so he has put this issue on hold. He needs to start over and move on, unless Ukraine makes some very powerful step at the second peace summit, unless there are some surprises for the Russians,”
– the expert believes.
Political analyst Volodymyr Tsybulko, in turn, looks at the situation from the point of view of domestic politics in Russia. In his opinion, Putin simply needs a constant war to maintain power.
“He needs a continuous war. War is the basis of his legitimacy. If the war suddenly stops, he will have no mechanisms to keep the Russian population in check. And so the war is a justification for terror and violence against its own population,”
– says Tsybulko.
The expert also draws attention to the economic aspect of the issue. As it turned out, after the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk, the Russians can make the war quite cheap for themselves.
“One of the options is a war on the territory of [Russia], which significantly reduces the cost of maintaining troops. After all, in the context of a counter-terrorist operation, based on the experience of Chechnya, we can say that [death benefits] are reduced, mercenaries [appear], and conscripts can be used. This significantly reduces the cost of hostilities for Putin,”
– the political scientist believes that Putin will primarily solve his internal problems by doing so.
“Even if he withdraws his troops from the territory of Ukraine, but there will be pockets of such military smouldering, this will allow him to maintain an authoritarian regime, support hostilities and a model of a semi-mobilised paramilitary economy,”
– the expert concludes.
Thus, Putin’s refusal to negotiate is a multifactorial decision dictated by the circumstances and aspirations of the Russian leader. The situation is definitely far from over, and therefore the Kremlin’s position is likely to change. In the meantime , the Russians want to exchange prisoners from Kursk, and Ukrainian fighters are taking 102 Russians prisoners at a time.
