China is pushing out Russians in their own market: what intelligence is recording
28 November 2025 20:56
Ukrainian intelligence reports that Chinese companies are increasingly replacing Russian manufacturers in a number of strategic sectors of the Russian economy. This was reported by the intelligence service, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
According to the Foreign Intelligence Service, despite the Kremlin’s official statements about “stability” and “import substitution,” the domestic market is rapidly coming under Chinese control.
The Russian economy is in a situation where the impact of Western sanctions is superimposed on internal imbalances
A high key rate, rising tax burden, and inefficient monetary policy create an environment in which Russian businesses are unable to invest or borrow.
Formally, fixed asset investment looks stable, but intelligence agencies call this a “statistical illusion,” as they estimate the real decline to be as high as 1.5%.
A separate blow was the reduction in export revenues by about a fifth. Under these conditions, Chinese companies are effectively getting a “free pass” into those segments where Russian manufacturers have lost ground.
Heavy truck market
The truck sector, which has traditionally been considered strategic for Russia, is currently experiencing a large-scale decline.
In the period from January to October 2025:
- sales of vehicles weighing more than 14 tons fell by 54%,
- the segment of long-distance tractors – by 71%,
- the total number of registered heavy vehicles decreased by 57% to 37.9 thousand units.
Despite KAMAZ’s formal leadership with a 29.5% share, its actual position is weakening. The Chinese brands Sitrak (16.3%), Shacman (10.8%), and FAW (9%) are rapidly taking over the market, while the Belarusian MAZ with 7.2% only increases competition.
This dominance of China is not an isolated case, but a general trend that covers the automotive market, equipment manufacturing, electronics, and other capital-intensive industries.
After most Western companies left, Russian officials spoke of a “historic chance” for the national manufacturer, but statistics show the opposite: the growing dependence on Chinese imports is becoming systemic.
the year 2025 also turned out to be a weak one for AvtoVAZ, the main player in the Russian auto industry: sales are losing momentum, and Chinese brands are gaining market shares.
