Summer 2025: forecasters told when to expect the peak heat and where it will rain the most
29 May 2025 20:07
FORECAST
After an unstable spring, which was accompanied by sharp temperature changes and localized storms, Ukrainians are anxiously awaiting the summer of 2025. Should we prepare for an abnormal heat wave, as it was in previous years? Or will we have a mild summer with rains and thunderstorms? Forecasters have already released preliminary forecasts, and climate scientists warn of new challenges related to climate change. In this article, we will discuss the likely temperature scenarios, precipitation levels, and regional peculiarities of the summer season in Ukraine.
According to Meteoprog.ua weather forecaster Igor Kibalchych, the summer season of 2025 will be warm and sometimes hot in most of Europe, including Ukraine. After the spring weather contrasts – with warm March and May frosts – no significant cold snaps or periods of unusually low temperatures are expected in the summer.
What the weather will be like in summer
Natalia Ptukha, a forecaster at the Ukrainian Weather Center and head of the media relations department, shared her estimates of the weather for the summer of 2025 in a commentary for "Komersant Ukrainian". According to her, a warm season is expected, with temperature deviations characteristic of recent years.
“In general, according to preliminary estimates, the summer is expected to be warm and with periods of heat, of course. Almost every month in Ukraine, the average monthly temperature is higher than the climatic norm, so this will not be an exception in summer,” Ptukha said.
According to her, average monthly temperatures are expected to be 1.5-2.5 degrees higher than normal.
For June, it is about 1.5 degrees higher, and for July and August – up to 2.5 degrees,” she said.
Localized thunderstorms and uneven precipitation are a traditional summer pattern
Ptukha emphasized that summer in Ukraine is always characterized by uneven distribution of precipitation, especially during so-called convective phenomena – local thunderstorms that form in the afternoon due to intense heating of the earth’s surface.
We always have these processes in summer, when there is a thunderstorm in one area and dry and sunny in the next. These are local, point phenomena,” the forecaster explained.
there will be “thirties”, but it’s too early to talk about records
Forecasters cannot give any specific maximum temperatures for the season ahead, but Natalia Ptukha says that Ukraine will have the traditional summer heat this year.
“We will definitely have thirties. Even in the first days of June – on the 2nd and 3rd of June – it is expected to reach 30 degrees in the south and east of the country, and 21-27 degrees in most regions,” she said.
However, forecasters warn that one should not trust forecasts that are too specific about peak temperatures.
“We will not announce any figures. We have seen such figures in previous years, especially in the southern regions. But to say for sure what they will be is a question of specific synoptic situations,” summarized Ptukha.
June: warm start to summer without anomalies
The first month of summer 2025 in Ukraine, according to preliminary estimates of weather forecasters from Meteoprog.ua, will be warm and quite comfortable. In general, June is expected to be typical with moderately warm weather and sufficient rainfall. The average monthly temperature will be between 18 and 23 degrees, which is about 0.5-1.8°C higher than the long-term average.
In most parts of Ukraine, precipitation will be within the climatic norm. However, in the western and northern regions, there may be a moisture deficit of up to 20-40% less than normal. Forecasters do not predict an abnormal heat wave, but the likelihood of heavy rains, localized thunderstorms, hail and squalls remains high.
Read also: Summer 2025 will be the hottest on record: Ukraine is heating up twice as fast as the world
July: traditional heat and drought risks
July is usually the hottest month of the year. And 2025 will be no exception. In the second half of the month, daytime temperatures will consistently exceed 30 degrees, and at night the thermometer will not drop below 20°C.
The average monthly temperature is forecast to be between 20 and 25°C, which is 0.7-2°C higher than the climatic norm. Along with the rising temperatures, precipitation is also expected to be scarce. In a number of regions, especially in the southern and central regions, there may be natural fires and the first signs of drought.
August: heat wave from the south and risk of drought on the Left Bank
The last month of summer will also be marked by heat, especially in the first half of August. During this period, the atmosphere will be formed by hot air masses from the south, of tropical and subtropical origin. This means that the average monthly temperature will again be 2-2.5°C above normal.
Despite the predicted heat, forecasters do not expect absolute temperature records, as in previous years. Precipitation in August will be traditionally low, especially in the east and southeast of the country. There is a risk of prolonged drought in the Left Bank.
Overall, the summer of 2025 is expected to be warm, with frequent hot days and localized thunderstorms. Ukrainians should prepare for the “classic” summer of recent years, with temperatures in the “thirties,” unexpected showers, and a great contrast in weather conditions even within the same city. It is too early to predict record temperatures, but the likelihood of significant heat is high.
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