Lukashenko made a cynical statement: is he provoking Putin to use nuclear weapons?

20 August 2024 16:03

ANALYSIS FROM

The self-proclaimed president of Belarus has made a cynical statement about a nuclear strike. Alexander Lukashenko said that “Ukraine would be very happy if Russia used nuclear weapons. He said that the operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region is an attempt to force Russia to use nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, the propaganda media hint not to go so deep into the territory of Russia because it is a nuclear country. They do not specify where the “red line” is.

"Komersant Ukrainian" has been trying to figure out whether words can become reality when it comes to a nuclear strike on Russian territory.

Lukashenko is either voicing the Kremlin’s theses or provoking Putin himself. Experts interpret the politician’s statement differently. On the one hand, the self-proclaimed leader understands that in the event of the use of nuclear weapons, Russia and Belarus would be left without allies. On the other hand, he is allegedly pushing the Russian dictator to act.

“The danger is that this escalation on the part of Ukraine is an attempt to push Russia into asymmetric actions. Let’s say, for example, the use of nuclear weapons. I know for sure that Ukraine would be very happy if Russia or we used tactical nuclear weapons there. It would be happiness,” Alexander Lukashenko

This is a propaganda message from Lukashenko, says retired lieutenant general and candidate of military sciences Ihor Romanenko. Specially for he notes:

“Putin wants to stop the advance of troops in the Kursk region and push them back to the borders. There are no forces to resist the Ukrainian forces, they are scraping together what they can and therefore using any other means of struggle, including propaganda, which Lukashenko is doing on his behalf,” Ihor Romanenko

Military expert Oleg Zhdanov in an exclusive commentary notes that he saw Lukashenko’s words as mockery and humiliation of Putin. He says that the self-proclaimed leader pointed out to the dictator that he was not complying with the Russian Constitution.

“Lukashenko trolls and provokes Putin, he even helps us, because he puts Putin in an awkward position regarding the fact that Putin does not comply with the Constitution of the Russian Federation. As President, he has to protect the territorial integrity of the country by all available means. And Putin is afraid to say that this is a war, that this is an armed conflict in the Kursk region. He says it’s whoever,” Oleg Zhdanov

Putin understands that he has one chance to take Donbas. So today he is actually exchanging Kursk region for Donetsk region, says Oleg Zhdanov. “Putin is thinking something like, ‘take Kursk region as much as you want, you can, you will give it back anyway, but I will never give Donetsk’.

The collective West wants Putin to start preparing for a nuclear strike

As soon as he gets his hands on the nuclear baton, it will be taken away from him, military expert Oleg Zhdanov is sure.

“As soon as Putin attempts to use nuclear weapons, if they catch the Iskander launcher and the missile has a nuclear head, the West will immediately use it to resolve the nuclear issue in Russia once and for all. In other words, they will deprive Russia of nuclear weapons, and they need a reason for this,” Oleg Zhdanov

Oleg Zhdanov also draws attention to the fact that Putin has significantly reduced his statements about nuclear weapons.

Indeed, except for Lukashenko and propagandist Skabeeva, there have been no threats as such over the past two weeks. And even the latter threatened rather veiledly. Like, don’t go too far, Ukrainians, because Russia is a nuclear power. And this once again shows that Putin has no red lines left. That is why Putin is absolutely afraid to mention nuclear weapons.

Under what conditions will Putin use nuclear weapons?

Oleksandr Demchenko, an analyst of Dmitry Gordon, in an interview with the Youtube channel “News Factory” recalls the words of the late head of Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and calls them prophetic.

“I recall the last predictions of Prigozhin, who said that Ukrainian troops would enter the Kursk and Belgorod regions, and Putin would hit them with a nuclear missile. I think if Putin is cornered, and he is being cornered. And a rat, as he said, cannot be cornered by hinting at itself. I do not rule out that Putin will launch nuclear strikes on his own territories,” Oleksandr Demchenko

The analyst is confident that Putin will not feel sorry for his territory, because the West will not kick Putin in the teeth because he is hitting his own people.

Putin has already been driven into a dead end and received a good slap in the face from the Ukrainian Armed Forces during the Kursk operation, Russian opposition leader Leonid Gozman is sure. Exclusively for [Kommersant] he says that now Putin needs to save his credibility among Russian elites.

“The use of nuclear weapons on the territory of Ukraine seems to me increasingly likely. In addition to Lukashenko’s words, Professor Anatoly Volintsev of Perm State University wrote a letter to Putin asking him to use nuclear weapons on Ukraine “delicately” – Leonid Gozman

After Prigozhin’s rebellion, Putin killed him, thus showing his own people that he was still tough, Gozman says. And now, after Ukrainian troops have broken through the Russian border, the dictator has to do something. The Russian oppositionist is convinced that if there is no strength to open new fronts, then the last option is nuclear weapons.

In any nuclear scenario, Putin will have to respond. Whether it is a strike on Ukraine, or on its territory, or by Lukashenko’s hands on any other country, the West will make Putin answer. After all, a clear warning to the Russian dictator was issued back in 2022 by US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. Moscow was told that any use of nuclear weapons would have catastrophic consequences for Russia.

Author – Anastasia Fedor

Мандровська Олександра

Editor