Lukashenka accuses Zelensky of trying to drag Belarus into war: what is behind these statements?
9 January 15:12
ANALYSIS
Self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko has accused Volodymyr Zelenskyy of trying to drag Minsk into a war. The Belarusian dictator made these statements in the Church of St. Nicholas the Wonderworker, according to Belarusian telegram channels and media.
Lukashenko expressed his indignation at the behavior of the Ukrainian president, but did not specify what he meant. He also made a number of accusations against Zelensky.
“This small island (Belarus – ed.) is not as small as I think, but it is a peaceful island. And you know, they are under pressure. They are under pressure. So we need to be dragged into this war. Why does Volodymyr Zelenskyy behave like this? We were fine with him, on good terms. Why is he waffling, what is he missing? He is being given a command. We must do everything possible to drag the country into war,”
– Lukashenko said.
In addition, Lukashenko noted that “such a dictatorship as in Belarus” is better than “such a democracy as in Ukraine.”
Meanwhile, political blogger Tatyana Martynova said on Kyiv 24 TV channel that Lukashenka’s words made no sense, as he was not in control of the situation, and the Belarusian Defense Ministry was under Putin’s control.
What did Lukashenko really mean, what are the current relations between Belarus and Russia, and what does the Belarusian dictator fear most? "Komersant Ukrainian" analyzed in detail. Military expert Dmitry Snegirev in a conversation with journalists
Is Belarus not under Russian control?
Snegirev criticized statements that the Belarusian Armed Forces are under Russian control. In his opinion, this is “outright nonsense.” He explained that the joint military exercises with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) demonstrate China’s significant influence on Belarus’ foreign policy, even more so than Russia’s. According to the analyst, the nature of these exercises reduced tension on the Ukrainian border and allowed Ukraine to move its reserves closer to the border with Belarus.
“China sees the Republic of Belarus as a springboard for the political and economic annexation of Europe,”
– Snegirev said.
The expert also denied the information about the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons or additional Russian units in Belarus. Snegirev said that Russia does not control Belarus as much as the media often believe, and that Lukashenko himself is trying to maneuver between Moscow and Beijing to preserve at least some political independence of his country.
Lukashenko and his relationship with Putin
Commenting on Lukashenko’s relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Snegirev noted that the Belarusian leader is trying to preserve his country’s subjectivity by balancing Western and Russian interests. In his opinion, telling statements and public photos with Putin are part of Lukashenka’s political game.
“Lukashenko is trying to walk between the cracks, maneuvering between Russia’s measures and attempts to preserve his personal power regime,”
– Snegirev said.
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Internal situation in Belarus and Lukashenko’s future
Alexander Lukashenko has been in power for more than 30 years, which has been accompanied by the physical destruction or forced exile of the opposition. In recent years, he has been trying to gain favor with the West, in particular through amnesties for political prisoners, which may be part of the preparations for the upcoming presidential election.
Snegiryov also suggested that in the future the country could be led by one of Lukashenko’s sons to maintain control in the family circle, probably through the creation of a so-called “successor program.”
The expert also touched upon the issue of Russia’s economic dependence on Belarus in the energy sector. According to him, Russia is currently dependent on the supply of fuels and lubricants from Belarus, in particular gasoline and diesel fuel. After a series of attacks on oil refineries in Russia, the Russian government was forced to increase fuel imports from Belarus.
“Russia’s dependence on Belarus for fuel supplies is becoming more and more obvious,”
– Snegirev says.
Lukashenko is preparing for elections and strengthening the regime
Military expert and former SBU officer Ivan Stupak specially for
According to Stupak, all of Lukashenko’s actions are currently aimed at “concrete” any opposition in the country, as elections will be held in Belarus on January 26. He emphasized that Lukashenko is trying to avoid the situation that took place in 2020, when mass protests demanded his resignation. According to the expert, Lukashenka remembers these events and is now doing everything to avoid their recurrence.
Belarusian army: under Russian control, but without a major threat to Ukraine
Regarding the situation with the Belarusian army, Stupak confirmed that it is under Russia’s de facto control. However, the expert believes that at the moment the threat from Belarusian troops to Ukraine is minimal. Stupak emphasized that the greatest threat existed in the first months of the war, when the Belarusian army could have crossed the border, but it did not.
“Now the threat is zero. Lukashenko does not want to get involved in the war,”
– Stupak noted.
The expert also emphasized that Lukashenko is in a difficult position. The Belarusian regime is completely dependent on Russia’s support, which imposes certain restrictions on its political maneuvers. At the same time, despite the external support, internal problems and protests remain relevant for Lukashenka, and he is trying to strengthen his position through PR and repression.
Thus, Alexander Lukashenko may talk a lot about his willingness to act as a peacemaker, but in reality he is strongly influenced by Russia, which greatly limits his options. The uncertainty about his attitude to the war in Ukraine goes against the Kremlin’s pressure, so Lukashenko is trying to maneuver between external players, preserving at least the formal independence of his country.
Author: Darina Glushchenko
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