July oil and gas revenues in Russia will fall by a third
23 July 2025 16:04
Russia’s oil and gas revenues may fall to about 680 billion rubles ($8.66 billion) in July due to cheaper oil and a stronger local currency. This is 37% less than in July last year, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports, citing Reuters.
At the same time, revenues should increase by the same 37% compared to June due to cyclical payments of oil income tax.
Nevertheless, the average price of Russian oil, calculated in rubles, remains below the federal budget target for 2025.
Russia’s oil and gas revenues for January-July may drop by 20% year-on-year to 5.4 trillion rubles, according to Reuters calculations.
The ministry had initially planned to receive 10.94 trillion rubles (about $140 billion) from oil and gas sales this year, but due to falling oil prices, it revised this expectation down to 8.32 trillion rubles (about $106 billion).
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How to hurt Russia
Russia is critically dependent on its energy exports. First of all, on oil exports. In 2024, the Russian federal budget revenues from oil sales amounted to 9.19 trillion rubles (approximately $89.4 billion). Total budget revenues for this period amounted to 36.71 trillion rubles. Thus, the share of oil revenues in the total structure of Russian budget revenues in 2024 was approximately 25%
This indicates that, despite international sanctions and attempts to diversify revenue sources, oil remains a key source of financing for the Russian budget.
Russian Urals oil is traditionally sold at a lower price than Brent and WTI, and it is also subject to additional factors that raw materials from other countries do not experience, namely Western sanctions. However, during all three years of the full-scale war with Ukraine, Russia has been successfully selling its oil – its main buyers today are China and India.
The federal budget of the Russian Federation for 2025 included an oil price of $70. Meanwhile, due to the collapse in the global oil market caused by Donald Trump ‘s trade war and OPEC’s decision to further increase production, the price of Russian Urals oil, according to the Ministry of Finance, was $65.15 per barrel on July 23.
So far, market analysts’ forecasts do not promise Russia any serious problems related to the price of oil, as it still has a very large backlash for sales. According to economic expert Oleg Pendzin, even a price of $50 per barrel is still acceptable for Russia.
“Currently, the direct cost of Russian oil production is about $37-38 per barrel. This is the direct cost. The critical figure for Russia is the sales price of $45,”
– the economist explained exclusively for .
Therefore, the most likely way to hurt Russia over oil is still to increase sanctions, including secondary sanctions against its buyers. The point of this step is to make it physically impossible for Russia to sell large volumes of oil and thus receive funds to continue its aggressive war of aggression.
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