Pasta prices are going up. Experts explain why and by how much.
24 February 20:00
Ukrainian-made pasta will increase in price by 10-12% in 2026. The main reason is a decrease in production margins in 2025 due to the difference between producer price indexation and consumer prices, according to the Ukrainian Flour Millers Association, as reported by "Komersant Ukrainian".
According to Alexei Nadvodnyuk, an analyst at ProConsulting, domestic producers account for 43.7% of the Ukrainian pasta market, with the rest being imported products.
“In 2026, prices for Ukrainian-made products are expected to rise by 10-12% due to a decline in production margins in 2025 caused by the difference between producer price indexation and consumer prices. This could lead to an increase in the share of imported goods on the market,” said Nadvodnyuk.
Nadvodniuk named the following among the main trends in the market:
— price pressure and promotional campaigns from various retail chains;
— growing demand for premium products due to the supply of pasta products to Ukraine as part of humanitarian aid;
— the strengthening of the role of private labels promoted by retailers;
— the displacement of imports by the economy and mid-range segments of Ukrainian production;
— growth in the share of instant pasta.
Despite the fact that most pasta products are imported, Ukraine itself is an exporter of these products, the expert noted. This mainly concerns instant pasta, which is highly competitive due to its quality.
The expert warned that such price increases could lead to an increase in the share of imported goods on the market.
Overall, during the past year, 2025, pasta prices rose by about 10%. At that time, market participants cited the rising cost of raw materials and two major challenges of wartime—power outages, which forced additional spending on generators and fuel for them, and a shortage of labor—as the main factors behind the increase in the cost of pasta products.
