Lukashenko’s Maneuvers in the “Great Game”: Why Does Belarus Need a Seat at the Table?
18 December 2024 15:20
ANALYSIS
Alexander Lukashenko is trying to increase his own legitimacy both internationally and domestically, despite Belarus’ participation in the war on the side of the aggressor. In an exclusive commentary to Komersant ukrainskyi, political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko explained what the statements of Belarusian Deputy Foreign Minister Yury Ambrazevich about “a place at the peace talks table” mean, where Belarus seeks to receive some “security guarantees”.
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko is trying to assert his role in potential peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, seeking to obtain security guarantees for his country, a political analyst says.
“Lukashenko has his own interest in this situation. He wants to return to the “big game” and restore his status as a respected player in the international arena. In 2014-2015, the Minsk agreements helped him restore relations with Western countries, and now he wants to repeat this success,”
– Fesenko said.
According to the expert, Lukashenko’s maneuvers resemble the actions of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who actively offers his “peacekeeping initiatives” aimed at strengthening his own political weight.
Lukashenko as a “player for Russia”?
The political scientist does not rule out that Lukashenko’s actions may be coordinated with the Kremlin.
“If Russia sees that the negotiations are shaping up to be a ‘2 1’ (Ukraine, Russia, and the United States), the Kremlin may demand the involvement of other players, such as Belarus or China, to balance the format. In this case, Lukashenko’s participation in the talks could be presented as a justified necessity,”
– Fesenko explained.
He also noted that Lukashenko could appeal to “security guarantees” for Belarus, raising concerns about a possible “threat” from Ukraine or NATO. This will allow Belarus not only to indirectly participate in the negotiations, but also to try to avoid further involvement in the conflict on the side of Russia.
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A big game with small ambitions
According to the expert, Lukashenko’s attempts to play the role of a peacemaker are not only in his personal interest, but also a way to create preconditions for his participation in the negotiations in a way that is favorable to Russia. At the same time, Lukashenko himself wants to use this opportunity to consolidate his legitimacy both in relations with the West and domestically, demonstrating his importance in resolving an international conflict.
“In the end, this is part of a big geopolitical game in which Lukashenko is trying to find his own benefit. His desire to become a participant in the negotiations is not only a demonstration of support for Russia, but also a way to strengthen his power amid the international conflict,”
– Fesenko summarized.
Ukraine’s MFA reaction to Belarus’ statement
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine expressed surprise at the statement by Deputy Foreign Minister of Belarus Yury Ambrazevich about Minsk’s desire to receive “security guarantees” and claims to “a seat at the table of peace talks on Ukraine.”
In a commentary, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhiy Tykhyi emphasizes that this position of the Belarusian regime is worrying because of Belarus’ role in the Russian Federation’s armed aggression against Ukraine.
“The Belarusian regime, contrary to the second part of Article 18 of the Constitution of the Republic of Belarus, which explicitly prohibits military aggression from its territory against other states, in February 2022 became an accomplice in the full-scale armed invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation,”
– Tikhiy said.
According to him, the territory of Belarus was used by Russia as a springboard for attacks on Ukraine, and this is what became a source of real threats to Belarus itself.
“All that Belarusian officials have the right to claim is a fair trial within the process of bringing the aggressor and his accomplices to international legal responsibility for the crime of aggression against Ukraine,”
– the Foreign Ministry spokesman emphasized.
Call for Hungary to stop manipulations
Separately, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry drew attention to Hungary’s actions, calling on it to refrain from “immoral manipulations” on the topic of peace. Ukraine demands that Hungarian officials stop unilateral contacts with Russia, which undermine the international community’s efforts to achieve a just peace.
“Hungarian statements about their ability to stop the war are not true. On the contrary, after such ‘peacekeeping’ calls to Moscow, Russian missiles and drones are flying at Ukrainian cities,”
– the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine emphasized.
The Ukrainian diplomatic agency called on all allied countries to support a common position aimed at ending the aggression and restoring international law.
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