Massive power cuts already in October and 20 hours in the dark: is there a chance to avoid it?
18 September 2024 15:33
РОЗБІР ВІД 
Last winter, Ukraine survived almost without blackouts and blackouts. However, what to expect this year is an open question, as some nuclear power units are undergoing repairs, and Russian attacks on the energy system are unpredictable and can happen at any time. According to Yuriy Korolchuk, co-founder of the Institute for Energy Strategies, there are different scenarios for the cold weather. It all depends on the speed of repairs and the weather. He spoke about this in an exclusive commentary to "Komersant Ukrainian"
“The position of the authorities, in particular the Ministry of Energy or Ukrenergo, is that no one can say exactly what will happen and how it will be. But this is not the right message, because these organisations, in particular the Ministry of Energy, Ukrenergo or Naftogaz, always have a plan for the heating season and it is always based on average temperature conditions, gas and electricity consumption,” he said.
According to Korolchuk, any forecasts should be based on the available opportunities, which are currently limited.
“But we definitely have an action plan. I think that it is quite realistic to expect blackouts to start in mid-October. Everything will depend, of course, on the shelling and the weather. If the temperature drops, the blackouts will return,” the expert said.
According to him, the repair of thermal power plants is currently being completed. They are already being put into operation, but it is not certain that they will operate stably.
“What will be the picture in winter: in fact, we have a more or less predictable operation of NPP units, which are more or less undamaged, there were no missile strikes on them. Some hydroelectric power plants can also operate. Everything else is damaged and under repair. Plus, there is the problem of Ukrenergo’s substations. So there will be blackouts, even if not in October. The heating season is formally due to start on 15 October, but informally it will start when the average temperature reaches 8 degrees for 3 days. This will immediately become a problem for electricity. People will immediately switch on heaters and air conditioners, which will drive up consumption,” Korolchuk said.
The expert also provided his forecast of possible blackouts in winter.
“If the winter is average, I think there will be blackouts almost every day. It all depends on deep cold snaps. If there are constant anticyclones, then the blackouts will be more than 12 hours. This is provided that at least 7 nuclear power units are in operation and at least some thermal power plants and hydroelectric power plants are stable,” he said.
However, if something happens to NPPs or TPPs, there will be even more outages.
“These 20 hours that are constantly being talked about are the real picture. The fewer units are in operation, the worse it is. If 5 out of 9 units are in operation, and something happens to the rest at the NPP, this will actually lead to outages of more than 20 hours. Also, for example, if all the units of the South Ukrainian NPP do not work, the southern and central part of Ukraine may be in blackout, probably controlled, or just with long-term blackouts,” Korolchuk added.
He noted that this is not an apocalyptic scenario, but a more pessimistic one, based on the indicators that may be available for weather and work units.
Earlier, Volodymyr Omelchenko, Director of Energy Programmes at the Razumkov Centre, told how long the power will not be cut off in Ukraine.
Author: Aliona Kaplina
