Less acreage and more risks: what the 2026 potato season might look like
17 March 16:19
Potato prices in Ukraine have plummeted due to weak demand and large stockpiles following a bumper harvest in 2025. Producers say they are forced to sell potatoes at break-even prices, while the market is further pressured by cheaper imports from EU countries and problems with crop storage.
Experts also warn that potato acreage may shrink next year, which could potentially shift the market balance.
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In a comment
The reason is the large harvest of 2025, which allowed both households and government buyers to build up significant stockpiles as early as last fall.
“Demand for potatoes this year is indeed lower than last year, as the good harvest of 2025 allowed the public and government buyers to stock up on potatoes during the harvest season,” says Samoilichenko.
According to her, producers have already lowered their selling prices as much as possible.
“In most cases, to the point of losing profitability,” she notes.
Storage costs have been an additional factor: due to power outages, many storage facilities ran on generators during the winter.
Why the price remains at a minimum
The price of Ukrainian potatoes has now effectively matched the cost of imports from the European Union.
In 2025, there was overproduction in EU countries, which put additional pressure on the market.
“The price is staying at a minimum equivalent to the cost of importing table potatoes from EU countries,” explains Samoilichenko.
At the same time, a significant portion of the potatoes in storage is not intended for retail sale.
Due to a shortage of potato storage facilities, producers primarily store:
- seed potatoes
- products for processing (in particular for chip production)
- potatoes contracted for the HoReCa segment.
As a result, there is little high-quality table potato left on the market.
“There are no more than 10–20% of the planned supply of high-quality table potatoes left that can be sold to supermarkets or at markets,” says Samoilichenko.
Why potato acreage may shrink
Experts expect that potato planting areas may decrease in 2026.
This is partly due to the typical market reaction following a year of overproduction.
However, there are other factors in Ukraine:
- low import prices
- high electricity costs
- use of generators
- high fuel costs
- the need for irrigation and the cost of water.
“All these factors are forcing producers to assess risks and temporarily shift their focus to less productive but more stable crops,” explains Samoilichenko.
This could affect potatoes grown for sale in markets the most.
The problem of “informal” production
The association identifies the significant share of informal production as a separate problem for the industry.
This refers to farmers and owners of small plots of land who:
- do not purchase certified seeds
- do not report to government statistics
- sell their harvest for cash without official record-keeping.
“Their behavior can only be predicted based on last year’s prices, and their harvest—based on the weather,” says Samoilychenko.
According to her, in years of good weather, such produce can cause prices to plummet in the fall.
“Informal farmers flood the markets with low-quality potatoes, 40% of which are simply discarded during sorting,” she adds.
Why potato shortages sometimes occur
Paradoxically, potato shortages in Ukraine can occur precisely during years of unfavorable weather.
According to government statistics, professional producers grow less than 0.5 million tons of potatoes and often use irrigation or drought-resistant varieties.
In contrast, the bulk of production depends on small-scale farms.
“In bad weather, informal farmers get a smaller harvest, so they can’t fill the markets with cheap potatoes—and that’s when a shortage occurs,” explains Samoilychenko.
The Polish Factor: Potato Surpluses
Piotr Kushel (representative of Europlant in Ukraine), member of the UAVK Board of Directors, in a comment
“I visited five major sellers in Poland—and each has several thousand tons they don’t know where to sell. So Ukraine will help Poland,” he says.
However, in his opinion, imports do not have a decisive impact on Ukrainian prices.
“Ukraine grows between five and ten million tons of potatoes, while imports from Poland last year amounted to about 100,000 tons,” notes Kushel.
Europlant—a German seed company—sells popular potato varieties in Ukraine.
Why imports won’t make potatoes cheaper
Even with low prices in Poland—around 4–5 euro cents per kilogram—potatoes in Ukraine do not become significantly cheaper.
The reason is logistics and customs costs.
“Even if Polish farmers sell potatoes very cheaply, they will cost about 15 hryvnias in Ukraine,” explains Kushel.
According to him, a significant drop in potato prices is not expected in the coming months.
“I don’t expect potatoes in Ukraine to be cheaper in the spring or summer,” he says.
The situation may change in the summer
According to experts, the import of new potatoes could change the market situation this summer.
Traditionally, they come from:
- Egypt
- Cyprus
- other southern countries.
However, long-term forecasts remain difficult.
“As long as Ukraine’s potato industry remains heavily dependent on informal production, general forecasts are like weather forecasts: reliable only for a very short period,” concludes Samoilychenko.
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