USDA raises forecast for growth of wheat and corn production in Ukraine
13 March 08:49
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has published an updated global forecast of the balance of major crops for the 2024/25 marketing year, revising upward the projected production of Ukrainian wheat and corn. This was reported by the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
According to the USDA forecasts, in 2024/25 marketing year Ukraine’s production volumes of wheat and corn will increase: wheat – by 0.5 mln tons to 23.4 mln tons, corn – by 0.3 mln tons to 26.8 mln tons. At the same time, export volumes remain unchanged: 15.5 mln tons of wheat and 22.0 mln tons of corn.
The forecasted world wheat production increases by 3.4 million tons to 797.2 million tons. This may be mainly due to increased production in Australia (plus 2.1 million tons to 34.1 million tons, which is the third best production figure in history), Argentina (plus 0.8 million tons to 18.5 million tons) and Ukraine (plus 0.5 million tons to 23.4 million tons).
The forecast for global wheat consumption was increased by 2.9 million tons to 806.7 million tons, due to increased feed use in Australia, the EU and Thailand.
According to the updated forecasts for the global corn market in 2024/25 marketing year, production is expected to increase, trade volumes are expected to decrease, and ending stocks are expected to decline.
The forecast for global corn production is up by 1.7 million tons to 1,214.2 million tons. Growth in India, Russia (plus 0.7 million tons to 14.0 million tons) and Ukraine (plus 0.3 million tons to 26.8 million tons) is partially offset by a decline in South Africa and Mexico. The forecast of world corn exports is reduced by 2.9 million tons to 186.4 million tons.
By the way, as stated by the First Deputy Minister of Agriculture Taras Vysotsky, this year’s wheat harvest in Ukraine may reach 25 million tons due to a larger sown area. According to his estimates, the planted area could reach 5 million hectares in 2025, up from 4.6 million hectares in 2024.
What about Ukrainian exports of grains and oilseeds?
In July-January of 2024/2025 marketing year, Ukraine exported grains and oilseeds worth $11 bln, which is $1.3 bln more than in the same period of the previous season. This is evidenced by the data of the Ukrainian Grain Association.
In particular, among grain crops, corn exports amounted to $2.41 billion (against $2.09 billion in 2023/2024 marketing year), wheat – $2.08 billion ($1.48 billion last season), barley – $350 million ($212 million).
This season, the supplies of some oilseeds increased, in particular soybeans – up to $909 mln (against $718 mln in 2023/2024 marketing year) and rapeseed – up to $1.45 bln ($1.14 bln).
At the same time, exports of sunflower seeds decreased to $22 mln, compared to $57 mln in the same period a season earlier.
Despite the decline in sunflower oil exports this season, the revenue among all the crops represented is the highest – up to $2.7 billion ($2.77 billion in the previous season).
2024 was a record year for the Ukrainian agricultural sector in several respects
The Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Vitaliy Koval reported, among other things, on the production of 6 million tons of soybeans, which is a historical record, the largest ever in Ukraine. Also, according to him, a record average milk yield per cow was recorded at agricultural enterprises – 6,565 liters.
“This is 7% more than the previous year. And it is the largest annual growth over the past decade,” the Minister said.
Also, as reported by the National Association of Sugar Producers of Ukraine “Ukrtsukor”, “in 2024, Ukrainian sugar producers set a historical record for sugar exports, sending 746.3 thousand tons of sugar to foreign markets worth $ 419 million”.
