Mobility of Ukrainians is declining: what is behind the drop in border crossings
31 July 2025 21:31
INFOGRAPHICS
In the first half of 2025, Ukrainians made 7.17 million trips abroad and 6.92 million entries into Ukraine. These are the lowest figures for the last two years, according to data from the State Border Guard Service published by the Opendatabot platform, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
Compared to the second half of 2024, when 8.33 million people left Ukraine and 8.29 million returned, there was a decrease of more than 1 million crossings in both directions. After the peak load on the border infrastructure in 2023-2024, the current trend shows a decrease in the overall mobility of Ukrainians.
This may be due to several factors: exhaustion of resources for relocation, stabilization of living conditions abroad for some refugees, complicated logistics, lower incomes, or uncertainty in the economic future. The adaptation of Ukrainian citizens abroad also plays a significant role: many have already integrated into local labor markets, educational and social systems.
In the first half of 2024, the number of departures amounted to 6.95 million people, and the number of entries was 6.92 million. In fact, this year’s statistics show a return to a similar level, but with a slight excess of departures over returns.
The highest volumes of state border crossings were recorded in the second half of 2023, when 8.32 million people entered Ukraine and 8.22 million left. This was a period of active return of Ukrainians, partly due to improved security conditions in certain regions, as well as seasonal factors (summer vacations, family travel, and study).
The decline in border crossings has implications for logistics, tourism, cross-border trade, and services for IDPs. In particular, the reduction in the number of entries may indicate a delay in the reintegration process of Ukrainians who left the country after the start of the full-scale invasion.
Read also: Over 3 years of full-scale war, about 3 million Ukrainians have left the country and never returned
As traffic decreases, the load on the border infrastructure also decreases, but at the same time, the volume of customs duties, profits of airports, border services and carriers also drops. The situation directly affects employment in these sectors.
The figures are expected to change in the second half of 2025. A potential political settlement of the conflict, economic stabilization, the launch of new refugee return programs, or even new waves of mobilization could shift the balance in either direction.
Currently, the border is no longer a “pendulum” in the classical sense. Ukrainians are leaving less often and returning more slowly. And it is in this new normal that the government will have to formulate policies for reintegration, logistics, and support for the diaspora. The long-term effects of this mobility will have an impact on the economy, labor market, social structure, and budgetary priorities of the state.
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