US peace plan changed: expert tells how Europe has seized the initiative in negotiations
24 November 18:42
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that the US peace plan will be amended after consultations with the Ukrainian delegation in Geneva. This was reported by Sky News.
Summarizing the results of the meetings, Rubio told reporters that the negotiations became for him “extremely productive” and “one of the most effective”.
According to him, the US team is already working on updating the peace initiative, although there is still a lot of work ahead. He also noted that additional details could be released later.
“We have a high-quality draft formed on the basis of proposals from all sides, and we have managed to go through a number of important points in detail. I think progress is evident,” the secretary of state said.
He added that after the discussion, the US and Ukrainian teams continued to work separately, as the US side is now working through the proposals received from Kiev.
“We are analyzing them and adjusting the document in order to reduce disagreements as much as possible and get closer to the option acceptable both for Ukraine and, of course, for the United States,” Rubio stressed.
At the same time, he emphasized that any solution would require the approval of US President Donald Trump, as well as proposals from Russia, but expressed confidence in further progress.
Trump has been isolated and forced to make concessions
Alexander Leonov, executive director of the Penta Center for Applied Political Research, in an exclusive commentary for "Komersant Ukrainian", assessed the current state of negotiations on the American peace plan and the role of Europe, the United States and Ukraine in the process.
According to the expert, the key goal of the current stage of negotiations is to work out such a version of the plan, which will not be unacceptable for either side.
“In addition to discussing the essence of the plan itself, there is now a competition for whose final version will look more unacceptable. russia expected that Ukraine would abandon the previous version and Trump would accuse Kiev of disrupting the negotiations,” Leonov noted.
Leonov emphasized that the participation of European partners was a key factor in the process.
“When the Europeans joined the negotiations, the situation changed significantly. A lot depends on Europe – both politically and financially. Trump himself handed them ‘cards in their hands’, saying that it is Europe that is responsible for Ukraine’s security,” he said.
The expert emphasized that the EU already buys American weapons with its own funds and transfers them to Ukraine, which means that Trump has lost the opportunity to exert pressure due to the threat of blocking supplies.
According to Leonov, inside the Republican Party, the first version of the plan met resistance.
“63% of Republicans, according to the Wall Street Journal, support selling even long-range weapons, particularly Tomahawks, to Ukraine. About 80% of Republican voters demand tough pressure on Russia,” he emphasized.
In his opinion, Trump is in a vulnerable position, including because of scandals on the domestic political front – in particular, the “Epstein tape.”
Frozen Russian assets are the key in the hands of Europe
The expert drew attention to the fact that it is Europe that controls the main financial instruments of influence.
“In the United States, about 5 billion Russian assets are frozen. In Europe – only in Belgium under 200 billion, plus another 50-70 billion in the EU countries. That is where the real levers of pressure are,” Leonov emphasized.
According to the analyst, it is important that the US and Europe unanimously confirm: there can be no restrictions on Ukrainian sovereignty.
“Most likely, the requirement for changes to the Constitution will be removed. Only the formula for joining NATO – conditional consent of all members of the Alliance – is being discussed,” Leonov explained.
At the same time, he reminded that the situation in the world is changing and Ukraine can receive security guarantees even through the mechanisms of the EU, which is now actively forming a military component and a new defense bloc.
According to Leonov, the negative reaction of the EU and the G7 to the first version of the plan put Trump in diplomatic isolation.
“He found himself on his own not only in foreign, but also in domestic policy. So now he is forced to make concessions,” the expert said.
Watch us on YouTube: important topics – without censorship
Security guarantees: everything should be on paper
Commenting on the discussions about possible models of guarantees, Leonov noted that they should have legal force.
“Everything that is not spelled out on paper does not exist. We have already gone through this with the Budapest Memorandum. Guarantees should be clearly defined, not put ‘behind the brackets’,” he noted.
Leonov explained that the number of the AFU in the range of 600-800 thousand refers only to peacetime, and Ukraine has the opportunity to build a cadre army with a large reserve. He also noted the importance of lifting restrictions on missile technology:
“If Ukraine gets medium-range missiles – 2-3 thousand kilometers – it will become an element of deterrence and a weapon of retaliation in case of new Russian aggression,” the expert said.
The exchange of territories is the most painful issue
Leonov warned that the topic of the so-called “exchange of territories“ could become the centerpiece of further discussions.
“Obviously, we are talking about Ukrainian territories. This is an extremely painful and problematic issue. And, unfortunately, many believe that it will not be possible to avoid it,” he summarized.
So, the negotiations are entering a decisive phase, and Europe’s role in shaping the new version of the plan will only grow. Difficult discussions lie ahead, but for the first time the parties are showing willingness to seek real compromises.
Read us on Telegram: important topics – without censorship
