On the verge of a breakthrough: the situation in Donbas is becoming critical
9 July 2025 21:26
ANALYSIS
Russia continues to exert pressure in Donbas, trying to realize a strategic breakthrough in Ukraine’s defense. According to recent reports, the situation in the east of the country is rapidly deteriorating, particularly in the direction of Kostiantynivka, which is a key point of the Ukrainian defense line in the region. The New York Times reports this with reference to military experts and analysts.
According to the NYT, the most critical situation is currently taking place on the outskirts of Kostiantynivka, a town that is the southern entrance to Ukraine’s last major defense line in the region. If it is lost, almost all settlements to the north will come under the fire control of Russian drones. This could be a decisive step for Moscow on its way to full occupation of Donbas.
The DeepState analytical project reports active hostilities in several areas at once. In particular, Russian troops have been spotted in Kamianske (Zaporizhzhia region), Komar, Yablunivka, and Toretsk. According to a deputy battalion commander of the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade with the call sign Forest, Russia launched a large-scale assault in Zaporizhzhia region:
“The enemy is trying to reach the road to Mariupol and capture Orikhiv by the end of the summer. It is an offensive along the entire front line, in particular in the direction of Mala Tokmachka and Robotyno.”
Defense continues: the situation is difficult but under control
In a commentary for Kommersant Ukrainsky
“About 110,000 personnel have been formed in the Pokrovske direction. This is the largest group of the enemy, which is attacking simultaneously in five sectors. Their goal is to encircle Pokrovsk, cut off logistics, reach Kostiantynivka, and from there – Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.”
Malomuzh adds that the Russians are trying to squeeze the Ukrainian Armed Forces into firebags, but the Ukrainian army is adapting:
“We do not hold our positions at the cost of heavy losses – we conduct maneuvers, withdraw people, and then strike at the enemy in their concentration zones. This is working – the enemy is suffering serious losses, especially in the Pokrovske direction.”
The general confirms that the situation remains tense along the entire frontline, particularly in the areas of Toretsk, Chasovyi Yar and Opytne:
“Attacks in the Toretsk sector have decreased to one or two per day. In Chasovyi Yar – up to seven. This indicates that our counterattacks have disrupted the enemy’s plans to break through in these sectors.”
Читайте нас у Telegram: головні новини коротко
Russia is preparing a new wave of attacks in the south
According to Malomuzh, Russia has brought reinforcements to the south of Zaporizhzhia region – in the area of Matok-Machka, Robotyno and other sectors. However, Ukrainian forces launched a series of counterattacks:
“We have built firebanks and fortified areas that are holding back the enemy. In addition, we are successfully attacking Russian communications – railroads, bridges, logistics centers. This deprives them of the ability to quickly move reserves.”
So, despite Russia’s active offensive, Ukrainian troops continue to hold key frontiers and inflict significant losses on the enemy. The strategic situation remains tense, especially in Donbas, but the Armed Forces are preparing for a long fight with an emphasis on mobility, maneuverability and effective counterattacks.
Russia is trying to expand the theater of operations to put pressure on Ukraine
Military analyst Dmytro Snegirev in a commentary for
“We should expect the expansion of the theater of operations to include new territories, primarily Sumy and Kharkiv regions. A breakthrough to the territory of Dnipropetrovs’k region is also possible. This will be used by Russia as an instrument of pressure during the so-called Istanbul meetings on ending the war.”
According to the analyst, the current intensification of fighting is aimed at changing the Kremlin’s negotiating position, despite the significant losses of the Russian army.
The Russians are trying to take control of key routes, in particular, the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk-Mezhova highways. The main goal is to create an operational encirclement for Ukrainian forces. However, urban development and industrial zones in Pokrovsk significantly complicate the assault.
“During the battle for Bakhmut, the Russians lost up to 60 thousand people. In Kurakhove – up to 30 thousand. In Pokrovsk, the situation for the enemy may be even worse,”
– Snegiryov said.
Pokrovsk is the last large agglomeration before the administrative border with Donetsk region. Its loss would open the way for the Russians to reach both Kramatorsk and Zaporizhzhia region.
Ukrainian Presence in Kursk Region: Russian Reserves on the Brink
Ukraine maintains a military presence in part of the Kursk region. According to Pravaya Sprava, units of the 22nd Motorized Rifle Regiment have been deployed to the area of the village of Guievo, and paratroopers of the 106th Division have been deployed to the area of Gogolovka. This indicates a shortage of reserves for Russian troops against the backdrop of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ active operations in the border areas.
“Operational reserves from the Bryansk and Belgorod groups – up to 100,000 personnel – are no longer enough to withstand Ukrainian pressure,”
– Snegirev explains.
Despite the tactical breakthroughs, Russia is losing the strategic initiative. The depletion of reserves, heavy losses, and failure to achieve goals indicate a shift in the balance in favor of the Armed Forces. While the Kremlin is looking for ways to exert political pressure, the Ukrainian army – including its operations in Russia – is consistently depriving the enemy of the ability to maneuver.
Читайте нас у Telegram: головні новини коротко
