Inflated figures and zero investment: what really lies behind the $800 billion deal that fell through in Davos
22 January 11:06
ANALYSIS FROM 
The reasons for refusing to sign the document on Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction are much deeper than public explanations and are related not only to the geopolitical background but also to the content of the agreement itself. Moreover, behind the impressive figure of $800 billion may lie not real investments, but complex financial constructions that do not provide for a rapid inflow of funds into the Ukrainian economy. Why was the $800 billion agreement not signed in Davos — and was the “Greenland crisis” really the reason? How real is this $800 billion: investments, loans, or political promises? Why, according to experts, does the US not plan to invest “real money” right now?
The US and Ukraine will not sign an agreement on the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine worth $800 billion at the World Economic Forum in Davos, as previously planned. This was reported by Axios, citing a Ukrainian source. One of the reasons cited is the intensification of international debate over Greenland and Donald Trump’s new initiatives, which have provoked a sharp reaction from European leaders.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb has already publicly stated that the crisis surrounding Greenland could push the war in Ukraine to the back burner of the international agenda, creating serious political risks for Kyiv.
What is wrong with the agreement?
The reason for the breakdown of the agreement is much deeper than the public statements about “geopolitical tensions.” Explains in a comment
“This agreement was canceled because it turned out that there were still some unresolved details. They’re not saying publicly what those details are. But from what I know and what follows from the logic of the processes, the Americans don’t plan to invest a single real cent in Ukraine,” Stupak said.
According to him, the announced amount of $800 billion consists largely of promises, guarantees, and financial structures, rather than real direct investments.
“This money is more of an ‘inflated figure’. The Americans are not going to invest real funds, but they expect to receive interest on this money in the future after Ukraine’s recovery. In other words, zero investment now and real profits in the future,” Stupak explains.
Behind the scenes at Davos: the real reasons for the collapse of the $800 billion deal
Ivan Stupak also points out that another version of the breakdown of the agreement is being discussed behind the scenes.
“Rumors say that the agreement was not signed also because of Putin’s refusal to agree to the previous 20-22 points of the peace plan that had been proposed earlier. But at the moment, there is too much uncertainty to say anything definitively,” says Ivan Stupak.
At the same time, the expert emphasizes that even if such a document were signed, it would have no practical significance until the end of the war.
“We need to look at the bigger picture and understand that even if this agreement is signed, it will not actually work until the war is over. It is more of a political signal than a real financial instrument here and now,” Stupak concluded.
Against the backdrop of geopolitical disputes between the US and Europe, as well as a shift in the focus of international attention, the issue of Ukraine’s post-war recovery remains open — without clear deadlines, guarantees, or real sources of funding.
What does the government say?
Ukraine and the United States have reached a working-level agreement on a political document, the so-called “prosperity plan” for Ukraine, which is estimated at $800 billion. This was announced by Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Taras Kachka during a panel discussion at the Ukrainian House in Davos.
According to Kachka, this is not a final agreement or financial agreement, but a political framework document that defines the directions for further cooperation between Ukraine, the US, and the European Union.
“At the working level, we have reached an agreement on a political document. But the biggest challenge is that this document will commit us to joint work between the EU, the US, and Ukraine and will involve dozens of legal instruments,” Deputy Prime Minister Kachka said.
He stressed that this document is of a planning nature and is not a ready-made project for immediate implementation.
“It is more of a set of tasks. It has a section with working areas, about five or seven different areas that need to be addressed in order to implement all of this,” Kachka explained.
According to him, the “prosperity plan” contains five to seven key areas that need to be worked on for its further implementation. Each of these areas will require the coordination of individual decisions, changes to legislation, and the creation of appropriate legal mechanisms.
Earlier, Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko reported that the $800 billion within the so-called “peace economic agreement” provides for a combination of grant and loan funds, which are planned to be directed towards the post-war recovery and development of the Ukrainian economy.
Zelenskyy went to Davos after all: will this affect the agreement?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has traveled to Davos, Switzerland, where the World Economic Forum is taking place. This was announced on the morning of January 22 by the head of state’s adviser, Dmytro Litvin.
The day before, US President Donald Trump, speaking at the forum, said he had a meeting planned with the Ukrainian leader. At the time of this statement, Volodymyr Zelensky was in Kyiv and did not travel to Switzerland due to another massive shelling of Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
The Ukrainian president stressed that he was ready to go to Davos provided that Ukrainian-American agreements on security guarantees or Ukraine’s economic recovery were finalized. He also mentioned the willingness of international partners to announce new support packages for Ukraine as one of the key conditions.
Zelenskyy’s participation in the forum is expected to focus on talks with Western leaders and international partners on the security situation, post-war recovery, and further financial and military assistance to Ukraine.
