Oil falls amid expectations of a possible ceasefire in Ukraine
27 November 2025 12:14
Oil prices are retreating on Thursday, November 27, amid expectations of a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, which could pave the way for the lifting of Western sanctions against Russian exports. At the same time, activity on the markets is expected to be limited due to the US Thanksgiving Day holiday, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports citing Reuters.
By 08:06 Kyiv time, futures for Brent crude oil fell by 0.55% to $62.78 per barrel, while WTI crude oil fell by 0.51% to $58.35 per barrel.
White House envoy Steve Witkoff will arrive in Moscow next week along with a number of representatives of the US administration, Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Russia is not ready to make concessions on the settlement of the war in Ukraine.
“Oil is slightly lower this morning, largely on hopes of a breakthrough in the Ukrainian peace process and a broader decline in the war risk premium, but the market continues to feel under-active and lacking direction ahead of the OPEC+ meeting and the US Thanksgiving lull,” said Priyanka Sachdeva of Philip Morgan.
Three OPEC+ sources told Reuters on Tuesday that the alliance is likely to keep production levels unchanged at Sunday’s meeting and will consider changes to the 2026 plan agreed by the group at a meeting in May.
“As for the real situation, prices remain extremely vulnerable, and any serious progress in the peace talks could lead to a freer flow of Russian barrels to an already oversupplied market. This will maintain the downward trend in oil prices over the medium term, with only short-term spikes,” Sachdeva said.
“The oil market is caught between the prospects of progress in the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine and what this will mean for oil supply amid broader risk appetite, while expectations are growing for a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December,” ING analysts said.
The US peace plan
In mid-November, the United States presented Ukraine with a draft peace plan. One of its 28 points provided for Kyiv to receive reliable security guarantees. After talks between Washington and Kyiv in Geneva, the document was reduced to 22 points, Trump said. At the same time, the US administration claimed that the parties had disagreements on only a few points.
According to a senior Ukrainian source at CNN, Kyiv rejected three key points of the peace plan. In particular, Ukraine is still not ready to hand over the unoccupied part of Donbas to Russia, limit the size of the army to 600,000 troops, and refuse to join NATO.
Previously, the U.S. side had set November 27 as the deadline for Kyiv to accept the terms of the peace plan. The US President said that Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy must accept the offer or continue to “fight with all the little strength we have.” After the talks in Geneva, the Ukrainian side offered to organize a visit by Zelenskyy to the United States to discuss the most sensitive aspects of the peace plan with Trump. However, the White House chief said that he expects to meet with Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin only when “the agreement to end this war is final or in its final stages.” He instructed his special envoy Steve Witkoff to fly to Russia for talks with Putin, and US Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll to contact Kyiv.
