Oil fever: how much does a liter of fuel cost in the EU?
12 March 15:10
Global oil prices fell sharply after US President Donald Trump said that military action against Iran could soon be over. This was reported by Euronews , according to Komersant.
The price of West Texas Intermediate fell by almost $30 per day, from a peak of around $119 per barrel to less than $90.
Why gasoline in Europe is not getting cheaper
Despite the fall in wholesale oil prices, this is not yet noticeable at EU gas stations.
According to the Fuelo platform:
- in Milan, AI-95 gasoline costs €1.89 and diesel costs €2.10
- in Paris, gasoline costs €1.92 and diesel €2.06
- in Frankfurt, gasoline costs €2.12 and diesel €2.19
Economists explain this with a time lag: retail prices react to market fluctuations much more slowly.
Risk of new inflation in Europe
Goldman Sachs analysts note that a 10% increase in oil prices could raise inflation in the eurozone by about 0.3 percentage points.
This is important because most European countries are net importers of oil and gas.
Three scenarios for the economy
Bank of America economists describe three possible scenarios:
- Baseline: oil around $80 — inflation will temporarily rise to ~2.5%
- Harsh: oil at $100 — inflation may exceed 3%
- Prolonged shock: persistently high prices will slow economic growth.
Will the ECB raise rates?
If energy prices remain high, the European Central Bank may raise interest rates.
According to market forecasts on the Polymarket platform, the probability of a rate hike in 2026 has risen to 42% — almost three times higher than before the conflict began.
Even a short-term rise in energy prices could affect the European economy.
