The Kremlin’s oil deficit: Russia’s production lags behind OPEC quota due to sanctions and Ukrainian UAV strikes
9 December 23:25
Russia’s crude oil production in November 2025 was significantly lower than its quota under the OPEC deal.
According to Bloomberg, the reason for the lag is a combination of factors: difficulties in finding buyers for the sanctioned barrels, as well as the consequences of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
Non-compliance with quotas and financing the war
In November, Russia produced an average of 9.43 million barrels per day. Although this figure is slightly higher than in October, it falls short of OPEC’s target by more than 100,000 barrels per day.
- The biggest gap: This is the largest recorded gap between Russia’s actual production and its monthly OPEC quota.
- Source of income: Bloomberg notes that this is a sign of Moscow’s growing problems with oil sales, a key source of revenue used to finance its war against Ukraine.
- Historical context: In the past, Russia has periodically exceeded its production targets in violation of OPEC agreements.
Impact of sanctions and Ukrainian attacks
The decline in production was caused by both international restrictions and Ukraine’s military activities:
- Sanctions pressure: In recent weeks, US sanctions affecting oil giants such as Rosneft and Lukoil have reduced demand for Russian barrels from a key buyer, India.
- UAV strikes: In November, Ukraine carried out a record number of attacks on Russian oil refineries, which put direct pressure on crude oil refining volumes.
Prospects for recovery
Despite the current difficulties, traders and refiners suggest that trading volumes may recover. This may happen due to the registration of new intermediaries and suppliers that are not yet on the international sanctions lists.
In early October, OPEC announced that it would increase oil production by 137 thousand barrels per day starting in November. Russia’s lagging behind in its share of this increase underscores its inability to fully utilize its quota.
