The oil market is not afraid of Trump’s statements on India and Russia
5 August 2025 14:36
Oil prices remained stable on Tuesday, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports citing Reuters. Traders are assessing the impact of two factors: increased supplies from OPEC and Trump’s threats to India over purchases of Russian oil.
On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known collectively as OPEC, agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day from September, marking the end of the last production cut.
At 11:10 a.m. Kyiv time, Brent crude futures fell 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $68.40 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate fell 41 cents to $65.88. Both contracts fell by more than 1% on Monday and closed at their lowest level in a week.
On Monday, Trump again threatened to raise tariffs on Indian goods because of the country’s purchases of Russian oil. New Delhi called his attacks “unfounded” and vowed to defend its economic interests, deepening the trade gap between the two countries.
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What analysts say
According to John Evans of oil brokerage PVM, the limited reaction of the oil market to Trump’s threats indicates that traders are skeptical about the possibility of supply disruption. He questioned whether Trump would risk provoking a rise in oil prices. Other analysts agree with him.
“I would call it a stable market for oil. I think this is likely to continue until we find out what the US president will announce about Russia later this week and how buyers will react to it,”
– said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
India is the largest buyer of marine oil from Russia, importing about 1.75 million barrels a day from January to June this year, up 1% from last year.
Trump’s threats come amid renewed concerns about oil demand, with some analysts predicting a slowdown in economic growth in the second half of the year.
JPMorgan said on Tuesday that the risk of a recession in the US is high. In addition, the July meeting of China’s Politburo signaled no further policy easing, with a shift in focus to structural rebalancing of the world’s second largest economy, analysts said.
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