Consequences of Russia’s night attack and a possible change in Russian tactics in winter: what should Ukraine prepare for?
21 June 2024 21:11
ЕКСКЛЮЗИВ
On the night of 20 June, Russia once again attacked Ukraine’s energy sector. Each strike makes the situation much worse. together with Ivan Plachkov, the former Minister of Fuel and Energy of Ukraine, "Komersant Ukrainian" found out what the state of the Ukrainian energy system is today, whether Ukraine really sells electricity abroad, what to expect in winter and whether the tariff increase will change the situation.
К: How severe are the consequences of the latest Russian attack on the Ukrainian energy system?
Very severe, they [Russians – ed.] destroyed part of the thermal generation, high-voltage networks, partially. Today, the energy system operates with a safety margin of minus 40%. Although on the eve of the war, we had plus 40%. Compared to the last heating season, we entered the winter with plus 5-10%, meaning capacity reserves and power line reserves. However, every blow, every loss of infrastructure significantly worsens the situation.
That is why the only way to stabilise the situation and the only opportunity, at this very difficult moment when we have a deficit of about 4 gigawatts, when there are constant blackouts, etc. is air defence, we need to protect the remaining facilities.
Russia may attack Ukraine’s gas transmission systems
So far, the Russians are only destroying the gas storage infrastructure, while Ukraine’s gas transmission system is working, and gas is being distributed, etc. If the agreement for the transportation of Russian gas to Europe expires on 1 January – we know that we are currently transporting gas to Hungary and so on – it is possible that there will be attacks on the gas transmission system and we may have problems with gas. That’s why we really need air defence.
К: What facilities are realistically recoverable over the summer?
This summer it is impossible to restore the facilities as a whole. It will be repairs if power plants with 6 or 7-8 power units operating and under missile attack can restore 1-2 units, which is what power engineers are doing now. And when the President said at the conference on the restoration of Ukraine in Berlin that we will build 1 gigawatt of capacity, he meant that we will restore these power plants, and I hope that we will restore about 5-6 power units of 200-250 megawatts each and enter the winter with an additional 1 gigawatt. But this is still not enough, because we have an incredible deficit. Moreover, if we have a cold winter, it will make the situation even worse. We need to understand that we have very big problems and we will have to live with them for more than a year or two until we restore everything. And the electricity imports that help us to balance the balance today are limited, and it is very difficult to increase them, so we need to do a lot of work both in Ukraine and in our partner countries.
“Raising tariffs is a belated step”: will it help Ukraine?
К: Can a tariff increase speed up the process of restoring generation?
No, of course not, it will help to stabilise and repair the situation, because… Raising tariffs for households is a belated step. Our tariffs for heat, electricity and water, unfortunately, have been taken out of the market economy and have nothing to do with cost, economic feasibility, etc. They are purely rating and political, electoral. Until now, tariffs have been three times lower than the cost of production, and even poorer countries in Europe probably don’t have such low tariffs. And now they are reaching the cost of electricity production. But the decision was made because of the war, people have no money. This [tariff increase – ed.] will improve the situation, but we need tens of billions of dollars to fundamentally solve the issue.
К: What is the real cost of electricity generated by nuclear power plants?
For the humanity of the planet Earth, the average cost of electricity, regardless of where we produce it, whether solar, wind, hydro, nuclear or thermal, is the same. The key is to do the maths correctly. Each country produces electricity using the resources it has. For example, France has neither oil nor gas – it produces electricity at nuclear power plants. So if France produces 80% of its electricity from nuclear power plants – and if we believe the statements of some politicians that this electricity is very cheap – then electricity in France would cost 5 times less than in Germany or Britain. Electricity is very expensive in France, we just don’t take into account that the state covers part of the costs of generating electricity at nuclear power plants. Today, we do not pay for decommissioning. For example, if a unit is in operation and then decommissioned, it needs to be maintained, at what cost? How are we currently maintaining Chornobyl NPP? At the expense of the budget.
So we shouldn’t deceive ourselves, the Almighty gives us each kilowatt per hour at the same cost, there are no miracles, and so these conversations are worthless.
К: How is the price of electricity formed: what exactly is included in it?
All the costs – fuel, equipment, materials, transmission, transportation, repair, there are about 100 cost items, just imagine: from fuel at the power plant to the socket.
К: And is Ukraine really selling electricity to Europe now?
Speculation. We are working in parallel with the European power system, and today we are receiving 2 gigawatts of electricity to save our power system, which is commercial electricity. And there is technical electricity – technical assistance, if, for example, we do not have a commercial contract and we have a deficit, then European electricity automatically comes to us so that we do not have blackouts.
And, for example, we received 1 million kWh there, but this price is very expensive for the technical assistance we can provide: at night, when we do not consume, and when our nuclear power plants are operating and there are no blackouts, we can return part of it because we do not need it. These are technical flows to balance the Ukrainian energy system, which has half an hour or an hour a day when it can return electricity, and this is much better than paying double or triple the price. It’s not that Ukraine doesn’t sell electricity, it wants to buy twice as much to stabilise the energy system, and there are no sales of electricity from Ukraine today and there will not be any in the near future.
