Catching up with the EU: Diesel prices in Ukraine have come very close to the European average
26 March 13:11
ANALYSIS FROM 
As of March 26, 2026, the Ukrainian fuel market continues to experience significant price fluctuations. Due to the conflict in the Middle East, global prices for Brent crude oil had already surpassed psychological thresholds in early March, writes
Since Ukraine is entirely dependent on imports, any fluctuations on European exchanges are immediately reflected at domestic gas stations.
Not only in our country but also in EU nations, diesel prices are rising rapidly. The Ukrainian market reacts with a certain delay but quickly catches up to European levels.
As of the end of March 2026, the price of €1.69 per liter in some places is catching up to the EU average (€1.84 per liter).
Below is a comparison of the average cost of 1 liter of diesel fuel in EU countries and Ukraine (prices include VAT):
- Ukraine: ~86.28 UAH (about €1.69) – over the past month, the price has risen by 33.9%.
- Netherlands: €2.26 – the most expensive diesel fuel in the EU.
- Germany: €2.15–2.19 – a significant increase has been observed amid the energy crisis.
- Austria: €1.90.
- Croatia: €1.70.
- Poland: €1.73–1.78.
- Hungary: €1.64–1.68.
- Malta: €1.21 — traditionally the lowest price in the European Union.
Experts explain that the rapid rise in the cost of diesel fuel in Ukraine is also largely due to logistical difficulties and the war.
“Currently, we import 100% of our fuel and therefore depend, first and foremost, on the price in the country of origin. Currently, we receive fuel from several European countries. These are Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and to a lesser extent, Bulgaria. And depending on fuel prices in these countries, we get our price plus the cost of logistics and delivery,” he said in an exclusive comment
"Komersant Ukrainian" .
As Novak emphasizes, fuel prices have risen worldwide, so this trend has not bypassed Ukraine. And although logistics have long been established, our country is directly dependent on fuel prices from major suppliers.
“In principle, the logistics routes established after the full-scale invasion have been well-established and remain unchanged today, but the price itself varies in the country of origin from which Ukraine sources its fuel. And since the global trend, due to rising global oil prices, is that fuel prices have risen practically all over the world—even in the United States, which is seemingly self-sufficient in oil production and refining—but fuel prices have risen worldwide, and therefore this has not bypassed Ukraine either,” the expert said.
Diesel fuel enters Ukraine mainly from Poland and Romania—the main hubs through which fuel from various countries, including the U.S., passes. Some is also supplied by sea through the Danube ports of Greece and Bulgaria.
In addition, the Ukrainian market includes products from Lithuania, Germany, and Austria. The latter two countries supply diesel fuel primarily to western regions.
Due to high demand and limited logistics, paradoxes sometimes arise where the wholesale price in Europe falls, while in Ukraine it continues to rise due to queues at the borders and a shortage of available tanker trucks.
Official forecasts for April 2026 indicate a trend toward sustained high diesel prices, but do not rule out a possible further price decline.
“Practice shows that prices never fully return to pre-crisis levels. Therefore, I wouldn’t count on prices returning to pre-Iranian war levels—I wouldn’t expect that—but a certain decline is possible, only after the global price of oil drops significantly and stabilizes at lower levels than they are now,” emphasized Andriy Novak.
Analysts expect oil to trade in the range of $95–105 per barrel. Since Ukraine purchases fuel based on European benchmarks (Platts), prices at Ukrainian gas stations will directly depend on whether the conflict in the Middle East subsides.
