NBU warns: there may not be enough money for 2026-2027
1 August 15:06
In 2025, Ukraine expects $54 billion in foreign aid. However, funding for the following years is in question: only a third of the amount for 2026-2027 has been confirmed. This is stated in the inflation report of the National Bank of Ukraine, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
According to the NBU’s forecast, this amount should be enough to finance the budget deficit and maintain reserves without issuing bonds:
“The expected volumes of external support will be sufficient for non-issue financing of the budget deficit and maintaining an adequate level of international reserves (according to the NBU forecast, about USD 45 billion in 2026-2027).”
The largest receipts are expected to be:
- ERA Loans – up to $18 billion by the end of the year;
- Ukraine Facility – up to $8 billion.
For 2026-2027, the NBU’s baseline scenario provides for:
- $35 billion in aid in 2026;
- $30 billion in 2027.
However, only a third of these amounts have already been announced, and negotiations are ongoing.
“Some of the necessary international assistance for 2026-2027 is not yet confirmed,”
– the regulator notes and emphasizes the risks of delay or underfunding, especially if high military spending continues.
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Ukraine Facility
Part of Ukraine’s external financing comes from the EU’s Ukraine Facility program, a €50 billion financing mechanism for Ukraine for the period 2024-2027. This program consists of €17 billion in grants and €33 billion in loans. The mechanism provides not only for financing budgetary areas in Ukraine during the war, but also for programs aimed at implementing the reforms on which Ukraine’s accession to the EU depends.
The EU’s support under this program should be focused on three areas:
- Financial support for Ukraine to implement reforms and investments, as well as to maintain the country’s macro-financial stability.
- Ukraine’s investment framework to mobilize investment and expand access to finance.
- Assistance on the path to European integration to mobilize technical expertise and capacity building.
What does the Ukraine Facility plan envisage?
The Ukraine Facility Plan envisages the implementation of structural reforms in the public sector, a number of economic reforms aimed at improving the business climate and entrepreneurship, and steps to develop priority sectors that can ensure rapid economic growth. Implementation of the Plan will contribute to Ukraine’s European integration and further sustainable economic development.
The Ukraine Facility Plan includes more than 150 indicators in 69 reform areas to be implemented by 2027. The plan was developed in full synchronization with Ukraine’s key international partners.
It is expected that the last disbursement under the program will be made in 2028 based on the results of the implementation of the indicators for the fourth quarter of 2027.
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