NBU warns of possible increase in electricity tariffs: what is known
31 October 20:07
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) predicts that electricity tariffs may gradually increase to economically justified levels starting in the second half of 2026 due to a shortage of capacity and a difficult situation in the energy sector, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
According to the NBU, in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, the electricity shortage will be 4-6%, and on average in 2026 – about 3%.
The regulator has also updated its forecast of gas import needs: 6 billion cubic meters in 2025, 5 billion in 2026, and 3 billion in 2027. This will increase government spending by more than $3 billion in 2025 and another $3 billion in 2026-2027.
The NBU emphasizes that the timing of the revision of tariffs for gas, electricity, heating, and hot water remains uncertain. Until the end of the 2025/2026 heating season, tariffs for households will not be changed, but the second half of 2026 may be a period of gradual increase.
The regulator warns that a delay in adjusting tariffs may worsen the financial condition of energy companies, while a sharp increase will increase inflationary pressures and the need for government subsidies.
As a reminder, Ukraine has a moratorium on raising gas and heat tariffs for households starting in 2022. The electricity tariff for residential consumers increased from UAH 2.64/kWh to UAH 4.32/kWh as of June 1, 2024.
Energy and tariffs in Ukraine
Moratorium and prices: The moratorium on tariff increases for households has been in place since 2022, with the aim of protecting citizens from a sharp rise in utility costs.
The role of the NBU: The NBU assesses the economic feasibility of tariffs, the impact of energy shortages, and risks to the financial stability of the state.
Balance of risks: A gradual increase in tariffs allows the NBU to avoid quasi-fiscal imbalances in the energy sector while minimizing inflationary pressures.
Previous changes: In June 2024, the electricity tariff for household consumers increased to UAH 4.32/kWh.
