Not just drones: how China trades with Ukraine
21 July 18:12
China has been the largest importer of goods to Ukraine for many years. Komersant found out which Chinese products are in demand in Ukraine and why.
China’s leadership in the supply of goods to Ukraine has been officially confirmed by the State Customs Service for quite some time. They show that in the first half of this year, Ukraine imported the most goods from China – $8.2 billion worth, followed by Poland – $3.5 billion and Germany – $3.2 billion. In 2024, the top three importers looked the same: China supplied goods worth $14.4 billion, Poland – $7 billion, and Germany – $5.4 billion.
If we evaluate the total trade turnover and take into account not individual countries but, for example, the European Union, i.e. the union of states, China loses its leadership. Ivan Us, PhD in Economics, Chief Consultant at the Center for Foreign Policy Studies of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, says.
“In the first half of this year, the trade turnover between Ukraine and China amounted to 9 billion US dollars. That is, China is our second partner in trade after the European Union. Of course, the European Union has more – it has more than 29 billion. In terms of percentages, the EU accounts for 50.8 percent of Ukraine’s trade turnover, while China accounts for 15.4 percent of Ukraine’s trade turnover. Turkey, by the way, is in third place, with a share of 7.3 percent,” the expert notes.
He also draws attention to the fact that when it comes to trade between Ukraine and China, it should be understood that it is mainly imports of Chinese goods.
“While exports from Ukraine to China in the first half of the year amounted to 847 million US dollars, Ukraine’s imports from China amounted to 8 billion 150 million. For comparison, Ukraine’s negative balance in trade with China is 7 billion 300 million, and the negative balance with the EU is 6 billion 600 million. And this is despite the fact that Ukraine’s trade turnover with the EU is 29.6 billion dollars, and with China – 9 billion dollars. But the negative balance is greater with China,” states Ivan Us.
Ukraine’s exports to China are indeed small in volume, but they are there. Unfortunately, the full-scale war and the corresponding problems with logistics have adjusted these volumes. Ivan Us continues.
“China has diversified its dependence on Ukraine a little bit, but it did have it. Strange as it may sound, but before the full-scale war, there were only two players on the Chinese corn market. These were Ukraine and the United States. Corn is now a bit of a thing of the past, but China has another very important item of interest in Ukraine, which is iron ore. And if we look at the statistics of the State Customs Service of Ukraine, in the first half of this year, Ukraine supplied iron ore to China for USD 553 million. By and large, apart from iron ore, China is also interested in such commodities as coal cake. Ukraine supplies oilcake to China for USD 165 million,” the expert noted.
Thus, in the first half of the year, Ukraine traded a total of $847 million with China. In return, China supplied Ukraine with goods worth $8 billion 150 million.
What exactly does China sell in Ukraine?
To get a sense of what Chinese companies supply to Ukraine, it seems that it would be enough to visit an electronics or electrical goods store or just Epicenter. There are a lot of products labeled “Made in China” there. But not everything is so clear. Ivan Us, PhD in Economics, Chief Consultant at the Center for Foreign Policy Studies at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, continues.
“This is a very important figure for the first half of the year: Ukraine bought drones from China for $725 million. This figure is also important given the fact that the media sometimes write that China supplies fewer drones to Ukraine, while it supplies more to Russia. But, for example, according to the data provided by the State Customs Service, the value of drone shipments from China to Ukraine increased by 34.3% compared to the first half of 2024. And physical volumes increased by 46.1%. And this, in my opinion, is a pretty good result,” the expert emphasizes.
That is, drones as a commodity are definitely among the leaders. But China is not the only country that sells drones. If we talk about product groups, the first place is held by the one that combines various kinds of electronics, equipment, electric machines, mobile phones, etc. Ivan Us continues.
“The largest group is electrical goods. For example, in the first half of the year, shipments of air conditioning units and air conditioners amounted to USD 85 million. Automatic information processing machines, i.e., as far as we can understand, we are talking about computers, amounted to USD 241 million. Motors and generators – 228 million. Transformers – 407 million US dollars. Batteries from China – 363 million US dollars. Telephones – 363 million US dollars. There is also such an item as transmitters for radiotelephone, radiotelegraph, and radio broadcasting – USD 420 million. We received diodes and transistors from China for $240 million. We also imported cars worth 260 million US dollars,” the expert notes.
Another comparable position in terms of value is plant protection products, i.e. insecticides, rodenticides, fungicides and herbicides. China supplied these goods for $198 million.
Not only the price matters
The war and its aftermath not only adjusted downward the export of Ukrainian corn to China and upward the import of Chinese drones and various kinds of generators, transformers, and batteries. Ukraine’s loss of production capacity due to the war is one of the reasons for the growth of imports of metal products into our country. In this category, China is second to Turkey, but it remains among the top three suppliers. Andriy Tarasenko, Chief Analyst at GMK Center, said.
“In total, Chinese steel imports to Ukraine amounted to about $120 million in 6 months of 2025. Of this, $80 million was mainly flat products (coils and sheets), as Ukraine has lost large production capacities in Mariupol. Therefore, imports of flat products naturally increased. In the long products segment (rebar and wire rod), Ukraine imported $20 million worth of products from China in the first six months of the year. In the wire rod segment, China accounts for almost 100% of imports. However, it cannot be said that Ukraine is dependent on imports of long products from China, as Ukraine’s production capacity for these products is only 50% utilized,” the expert said.
According to him, the share of steel products in total imports from China to Ukraine is insignificant – 1.5% for 6 months of 2025, but the trend is upward and the reason is the price of Chinese products. Andriy Tarasenko, Chief Analyst at GMK Center, continues.
“Compared to pre-war 2021, imports of flat products from China remained as active as ever, while supplies of long products increased approximately threefold. It is worth noting the destructive price impact of Chinese products. Chinese producers have indirectly driven down global steel prices through exports to other Asian markets. Other countries cannot maintain the same price level as Chinese producers, as they have the ability to attract state aid,” explains Andriy Tarasenko.
Trade is good, dependence is bad
Imports of goods from China to Ukraine have been growing steadily throughout the years of the full-scale war with Russia. And official Beijing has been supporting the Russian authorities politically and economically, and more recently, publicly, in this war. How to deal with this? Is business beyond politics? Ivan Us, PhD in Economics, Chief Consultant at the Center for Foreign Policy Studies at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, gives his opinion.
“China’s large presence in trade with different countries is a reality of the modern global economy. That is, not only Ukraine, but almost the whole world, one way or another, buys something made in China. And I’m not ready to say that China supports Russia, which means we have to give up everything Chinese, because the same drones help us. And China, it can say as much as it wants, politically, that it does not want Russia to fail, but this does not prevent China from supplying Ukraine with drones, which, on the contrary, do not allow Russia to win this war. On the contrary, they rather help Ukraine in the war. But it is also undesirable to become dependent,” the expert emphasizes.
It is also worth remembering that trade with China is not always about partnership. There have been attempts to take over Ukrainian technologies and direct competition with Ukrainian producers, as in the case of Chinese pipes.
The fact that Chinese pipes compete with Ukrainian-made products on the domestic market was highlighted in last year’s study by the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI” on various aspects of Ukrainian-Chinese cooperation.
For example, it analyzed data from the Prozorro platform on 23 tenders for the purchase of casing pipes in 2023 for the state-owned Ukrgasvydobuvannya. The Chinese intermediary Vorex submitted its proposals for 17 tenders, and the bidding resulted in 11 agreements for the supply of pipes worth $100.5 million. At that time, this gave grounds to talk about a certain “pipe hegemony” of China in Ukraine, and to call on the authorities to pay more attention to regulatory mechanisms, especially where Ukraine produces its own analogues.
Mykhailo Gonchar, President of the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI”, emphasizes that China has been the largest importer of goods to Ukraine for many years, and, in particular, due to the low price of its products, it forms a rather serious dependence of the Ukrainian domestic market on the products of one country.
“In fact, we are stepping on the same rake as in the case of Russia. And this situation is problematic and threatening, and it did not appear today. If you look at the statistics of Ukraine’s foreign trade with China, since 2005, 20 years ago, we have had a stable negative balance in trade with China. They sell us more than they buy from us. Why is this happening? On the one hand, the cost of Chinese products is very low. But on the other hand, there is a policy of state protectionism, which means that the Chinese state is doing everything possible to help its exporters increase their presence in the markets of those countries that are identified as having a certain importance for the further functioning of the Chinese economy. This is something that fits into the format of this global project of Chinese globalization, One Belt, One Road,” says Mykhailo Honchar.
In his opinion, it is very important not to fall into this trap of dependence on such a supposedly profitable partner.
“Of course, there are industry lobbies that say we need to do more business in China, and they buy grain, oil, iron ore concentrates, and so on. Of course, this is a separate business interest. But then they will impose certain restrictions and force you to lower your prices. At any time, they can tell our farmers that their products do not meet certain phytosanitary standards and so on. The main thing is not to become dependent,” emphasizes Mykhailo Gonchar, President of the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI”.
It must be admitted that China has long since learned how to convert economic dependence into concrete political benefits. But Ukraine is also learning. And one of the evidences of this is that the average level of localization of unmanned systems production has long exceeded 50% and continues to grow, and Ukrainian manufacturers are looking for and finding solutions to replace Chinese drones. And the state supports them in this.
Author: Sergiy Vasilevich
