Novak: Russia’s economy is already entering a phase of decline—the first signs will become apparent this year
26 March 14:49
The Russian economy may begin to show signs of a systemic crisis as early as this year, which will gradually push the country to the brink of financial stability.
Key indicators include the ruble’s decline, the deteriorating financial condition of large companies, and the loss of the ability to finance the war at its current level. Economist Andrey Novak stated this in an interview with the YouTube channel "Komersant Ukrainian".
“It (the Russian economy — ed.) is already beginning to die. Of course, I can’t name the exact month right now, but it will happen this year,” he said.
According to the economist, one of the first signs will be a further weakening of the Russian currency.
“First is the continued collapse of the ruble’s exchange rate. The second sign is the inability to sustain and finance the war at the level at which they are currently supporting it,” Novak noted.
He emphasized that the financial condition of leading Russian companies based on the results of the first quarters of the year will be a critical factor.
Read us on Telegram: important topics – without censorship
If their performance turns out to be negative, this will mean the economy’s loss of ability to fill the budget.
“If the financial condition of Russia’s leading corporations is negative, this will indicate that there is simply nothing left to fill the budget with,” the expert explained.
According to him, in such a case, Russia will face a choice: either cut military spending or enter a phase of deep economic collapse.
Watch us on YouTube: important topics – without censorship
“It’s simply an abyss, simply a collapse,” Novak said.
At the same time, he emphasized that the Russian authorities effectively have no way out of the current situation: ending the war could lead to internal political destabilization, while continuing it could lead to the complete exhaustion of the state.
“Ending the war—and internal processes will simply sweep away Putin and his entire entourage. Continuing the war—the same outcome for the Russian state,” the economist concluded.
