New US duties: which Ukrainian producers will face problems
1 April 09:42
Special 25 percent duties on all imports of steel, aluminum and products made from them, introduced in March this year by US President Donald Trump, will have a direct impact on Ukrainian exports. This is stated in the Foreign Trade Monitoring of the Institute for Economic Studies, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
on March 12, 2025, the US decision canceled Ukraine’s exemption from special duties on steel and aluminum, which was introduced in 2022. It is reported that exports of Ukrainian goods subject to the new US duties amounted to $150 million in 2024, which is 4% of Ukraine’s total exports. At first glance, 4% is not much. But there are nuances.
Ukrainian pipe producers will be negatively affected
More than 75% of Ukraine’s exports to the US are pipes. And, according to the Institute for Economic Research, the US market plays a key role in this industry.
In total exports of pipes for oil and gas pipelines from Ukraine, the US share is 37%. And in the export of pipes for drilling oil and gas wells, it is 38% (the EU’s share is 21% and 6%, respectively). The US market also consumes 18% of Ukrainian seamless steel pipes exported.
Although the new duties affect not only Ukraine, the impact on our producers may be more serious, as the sector already suffers from the high cost of international logistics and military risks.
At the same time, the EU has been and remains the main buyer of Ukrainian metals. Last year, EU countries accounted for 76% of exports of goods on which the US imposed duties. Moreover, Ukrainian metals are supplied to the EU market duty-free under the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area.
What about other Ukrainian exports?
In February 2025, Ukraine’s exports fell by 10% yoy to USD 3.1 bn. According to the Foreign Trade Monitoring of the Institute for Economic Studies, the drop in exports is the second month in a row due to a decrease in stocks of agricultural products destined for the foreign market. The decline in exports is also related to the attacks on ports and infrastructure that Ukraine has experienced.
Exports of agricultural products decreased by 18% yoy to USD 1.8 bn. USD. As in the previous month, physical volumes of exports of major agricultural commodities dropped significantly: wheat by 54% yoy, oil by 46% yoy, corn by 28% yoy. This decline was partially offset by higher export prices as compared to last year and increased exports of soybeans, soybean oil and some other food products.
In February, exports of metallurgy products dropped by 18% yoy to USD 287 m. This decline was primarily attributed to lower production of iron ore and coking coal, as metallurgical plants had to import some raw materials to maintain operations.
Similar trend was observed in exports of mineral products, which declined by 20% yoy and amounted to USD 242 mn. THE EXPORTS OF MINERAL PRODUCTS DECREASED BY 20% YOY AND AMOUNTED TO USD 242 MN. First of all, exports of iron ore dropped by 23% yoy to USD 202 mn due to lower export prices than last year.
Exports of machine building products increased by 68% to USD 287 m. Exports of cables for the automotive industry continued to grow, but exports of a number of household appliances also increased significantly.
In February 2025, exports of goods not included in the main export groups (agricultural products, metallurgy, mineral products, and machinery) increased by 16% to USD 455 million. THE EXPORTS OF CLOTHING PRODUCTS INCREASED BY 16% AND AMOUNTED TO USD 455 MILLION. In particular, Ukrainian apparel producers expanded exports of clothing and footwear to the EU due to duty-free access to the market.
Corn became the most exported commodity from Ukraine in January-February
Since the beginning of the year, Ukraine has exported 4.7 million tons of this cereal crop, worth $982 million. It has become a key export commodity, accounting for 26.5% of agricultural exports and 16% of Ukraine’s total exports. This was reported by the State Customs Service.
Most of all, corn was exported to Spain – 933 thousand tons, Italy – 725 thousand tons, Turkey – 639 thousand tons, Egypt – 593 thousand tons and the Netherlands – 514 thousand tons.
What else was exported from Ukraine and where
In January-February 2025, Ukrainian exports amounted to $6.3 billion. The top three most exported commodity groups from Ukraine in January-February were
food products – $3.7 billion
metals and metal products – $624 million
machinery, equipment and transport – $568 million.
Ukraine exported the most goods to Poland – $714 million, Spain – $464 million, and Italy – $449 million.
