A New Round of Ukraine-Russia Talks in the Vatican: What Chance of Success?
22 May 2025 17:25
ANALYSIS FROM 
A new round of talks between Ukraine and the United States is likely to take place in the Vatican in mid-June. The Wall Street Journal reports this with reference to its sources.
During a telephone conversation with European leaders, US President Donald Trump said that he would send Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy Keith Kellogg to the talks.
On Monday, Trump did not clarify his position on the role of the United States in these negotiations,” the newspaper’s sources said.
The Wall Street Journal also informs that some European leaders, during a conversation with Trump, insisted that the goal of the Vatican talks should be an unconditional ceasefire.
However, Trump evaded a specific answer, noting that he did not support the term “unconditional.” He added that he had never used the expression, although he had previously called for a 30-day ceasefire in a post on his social media platform Truth on May 8. In the end, the Europeans agreed to stop using this adjective, the WSJ article says.
When exactly can the talks take place, who will be in the delegation and whether the negotiations will succeed this time – read more
Negotiations are inevitable unless there is a force majeure
Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko in an exclusive commentary for
The talks will take place, almost inevitably, unless something very negative or force majeure happens. This is Trump’s position, which affects both us and Russia, as confirmed by Trump’s last conversation with Putin,” the expert noted.
Fesenko emphasizes that for the negotiations to be truly successful, several key things need to be agreed upon: the place, date, agenda, and level of representation of the parties.
At the moment, it is necessary to determine where and when it will take place, as well as what will be discussed. Most likely, it will be a memorandum. But its content and a compromise version have yet to be worked out,” the political scientist explained.
“Of particular concern is the possibility of Russia’s participation at a low level – without representatives with decision-making authority.
Even the Americans were dissatisfied with the low level of the Russian delegation during the meeting in Istanbul on May 16. Ukraine and the United States will insist that these are people who can make decisions, not just discuss issues,” the expert adds.
Read also: Four things Zelensky told Trump in the Vatican. And he agreed with three of them
Russia is dragging its feet, the US is seeking a compromise, Ukraine is demanding a ceasefire
Today, according to Fesenko, there is only a tactical struggle around the very idea of negotiations. The parties pursue different goals:
The Americans want to reach a compromise, although sometimes it looks quite contradictory, especially from Trump himself. Russia is imitating the negotiation process. Ukraine insists on discussing the ceasefire first,” he emphasizes.
Fesenko argues that the talks are currently a diplomatic game rather than a real attempt to reach an agreement.
“To describe the situation in one sentence, it is a tactical struggle around the topic of the negotiations. Russia has no desire to negotiate. They are simply preserving the possibility of a future agreement with Trump – not so much on Ukraine as on other global issues,” he believes.
Fesenko emphasizes that the main barrier to effective negotiations is the Kremlin’s confidence in its own superiority. In his opinion, only two factors can change the situation.
The first is a tougher stance by the United States. Fesenko believes that Washington should consistently put pressure on Moscow to compromise, especially on the ceasefire. Concessions or hesitations, on the contrary, harm the cause.
The second is a change in the situation at the front.
When Russia realizes that the war cannot be won, only then will there be a chance for real negotiations,” the political scientist concludes.
Fesenko is convinced that today the prospects for peace talks depend not so much on an international initiative as on geopolitical pressure and changes on the battlefield. As long as the Kremlin believes in the possibility of victory, any diplomatic process will remain a tool for delaying time, not a step towards peace.
No real chance for diplomacy by the end of the year
In a conversation with journalists
The negotiation process is just an imitation on the part of Russia. Their goal is to buy time, not to end the war. I am very skeptical here,” Sahakyan emphasized.
According to the expert, we should not expect any real diplomatic breakthrough by the end of 2025. Only after Russia’s new economic and military failures can the situation change.
I don’t see a window for diplomats until the end of the year. Unless, at the end of the year, after a failed summer and fall campaign and another economic downturn, Russia changes its position. Then China may “wake up” as a mediator,” the political scientist suggests.
The expert notes that the current moment looks favorable for the Kremlin – after a long pause, Putin believes that the situation is once again in his favor.
After a year and a half of darkness, Putin has a feeling that he is “on a horse.” His hands are tied, and this is not conducive to compromise,” explains Sahakyan.
Sahakyan emphasizes: “It is important for Kyiv to prevent the deterioration of relations with the United States. Especially at a time when Washington’s position is wavering.
Our task is to keep Trump from getting off the hook, at least to maintain cooperation in the arms sector. Ideally, we would like to achieve the implementation of the so-called “mini-Land-Lease”, where the United States transfers weapons under investment guarantees,” explained Sahakyan.
Thus, Ukrainian experts are increasingly inclined to believe that the nearest peace initiatives are nothing more than diplomatic theater. As long as the Kremlin feels strong, and the White House is busy with domestic politics, it is too early to count on real peace. Ukraine, on the other hand, has to balance the need to defend its own position while not losing the support of its main strategic partner.
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