Economy

The volume of consumer bank loans is 15% higher than in pre-war 2021

In 2022, the volume of consumer loans decreased by 9.89% compared to 2021, and in 2023 and 2024, there was a gradual increase in consumer loans – by 5% and 21.09%, respectively. As of January 1, 2025, the volume of consumer bank loans to individuals exceeds the pre-war volume by 15%. This is stated in the report of the Center for Economic Research and Forecasting “Financial Pulse”.

In the structure of the bank loan portfolio of individuals, consumer loans account for the main share – 76.52% of the total. Loans for the purchase, construction or reconstruction of real estate are in second place in terms of portfolio volume (12.7% of the bank’s retail loan portfolio). Loans for the purchase of transport accounted for 4.79%, and loans to individual entrepreneurs (IEs) – 5.98%.

Analysts note that compared to the “pre-war” year 2021, the share of car loans decreased (-2.78 percentage points), the share of mortgage loans increased (1.48 percentage points) and loans to individual entrepreneurs increased (1.38 percentage points). The share of consumer loans remained almost unchanged (-0.08 percentage points).

“The full-scale invasion had a significant impact on the volume of lending to individuals: in 2022, there was a decrease in lending under all loan programs. However, in 2023, most programs saw a significant recovery, and by the end of 2024, lending volumes exceeded pre-war levels,” said Dilyara Mustafayeva, Head of the Analytical Department at Financial Pulse.

According to the data provided in the Financial Pulse article, the largest percentage decline was observed in car loans: in 2022, the car loan portfolio decreased by 32%, and in 2023, the volume of car loans decreased by 10.26%. However, in 2024, the volume of car loans increased by 19.41%, and as of January 1, 2025, the car loan portfolio amounted to 73% of the pre-war level.

Analysts also spoke about the development of mortgage lending. Thus, by the end of 2022, the portfolio of bank loans for real estate decreased by 25.29%, and by the end of 2023 it increased significantly (24.31% compared to the balances at the beginning of the year), and continued to grow in 2024 (39.75% for the year).

“As of 01.01.2025, the volume of the bank’s mortgage portfolio exceeded the pre-war balance (as of 01.01.2022) by 30%, mainly due to the introduction of the state program of affordable housing “eOselya”, – emphasized Dilyara Mustafayeva.

Based on the data of banks’ balance sheets, 45 banks had a mortgage loan portfolio at the beginning of 2025. In terms of the mortgage loan portfolio in national currency as of 01.01.2025, the top three state-owned banks are among the leaders by a significant margin: “Oschadbank, PrivatBank, and Ukrgasbank. The total volume of their mortgage loans is 83.35% of the total mortgage volume.

The top ten leaders include Kredobank, Sens Bank, Pravex Bank, GLOBUS Bank, Credit Dnipro Bank, Sky Bank, and Ukrsibbank.

In terms of lending to individual entrepreneurs, the volume of loans decreased by 4.95% in 2022 compared to 2021, but in 2023 and 2024, there was an increase of 24.72% and 25.85%, respectively. The increase compared to the pre-war volume as of 01.01.2025 amounted to 49%.

Referring to the NBU data, experts note that in 2024, not only did the retail loan portfolio increase, but its quality also improved. As of the beginning of 2025, the volume of loans to individuals, including individual entrepreneurs, in the banking system of Ukraine amounted to UAH 295.6 billion. In 2024, compared to 2023, it increased by UAH 54.7 billion (22.7%), while the volume of non-performing loans decreased by UAH 10.9 billion (-19.2%).

“As of the beginning of 2025, the share of non-performing loans to individuals in the banking portfolio amounted to 15.49% compared to 23.52% as of January 1, 2024, i.e. it decreased by 8.03 percentage points over the year. That is, as of the beginning of 2025, the situation with NPLs has improved even compared to the pre-war period,” Dilyara Mustafayeva noted.

The bulk of retail loans are on the balance sheet of state-owned banks – they own 54% of the total loan portfolio and 60% of NPLs. Banks with private capital account for 37% of total retail loans, and banks of foreign banking groups account for about 9%.

“In 2025, there is a high probability of further growth in the retail loan portfolio. In our opinion, consumer loans and loans to private entrepreneurs will grow the most significantly in percentage terms. At the same time, the growth of car lending will be slower, and the dynamics of mortgage lending will primarily depend on the effectiveness of the state program “eHouse”,” Dilyara Mustafayeva summarized.

Reference

The NGO “Center for Economic Research and Forecasting “Financial Pulse” was established on March 2, 2015 to unite the efforts of participants and experts of the financial market of Ukraine for its development and improvement.

Goals to be achieved by the Center’s activities:

• Improving the quality of the regulatory framework governing the financial market, eliminating regulatory problems that hinder its full development
• Increasing the transparency of financial institutions
• Development of new market instruments and mechanisms, including through the introduction of best international practices
• Improving financial literacy of the population
• Promoting the implementation of economic reforms, including through financial decentralization
• Promoting entrepreneurship, etc.

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