Fall 2025: Ukrainian drivers will face a significant rise in fuel prices
20 August 18:19
Starting from October 2025, Ukrainian motorists may face new financial challenges at gas stations. Fuel market experts warn that prices for gasoline and diesel fuel may rise by at least UAH 3-5 per liter. This was reported by Autodosug, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
The reasons are complex and include both global economic factors and new environmental regulations in the European Union.
The main reasons for the price increase
- Implementation of ETS-2 in the EU
In October, the second phase of the ETS-2 emissions trading system, which covers the transportation sector, will be launched. Fuel importers are required to purchase CO₂ emission quotas.
Ukraine, which imports a significant portion of its petroleum products from the EU, will inevitably feel the impact of this regulation as additional costs will be included in the final price at gas stations.
- Rising global oil prices
Brent crude oil has risen by 12% over the past two months, and is expected to rise further to $90-95 per barrel. This puts additional pressure on prices in Ukraine.
- Hryvnia exchange rate fluctuations
Volatility in the foreign exchange market also affects the cost of imported energy, which reinforces the overall upward trend in prices.
Projected prices
Impact on drivers and businesses
- For private drivers
With standard mileage, expenses may increase by UAH 500-700 per month. This will be an additional burden on the family budget.
- For businesses
Commercial transportation, logistics and delivery of goods – all of these directly depend on the cost of fuel. Transportation tariffs are expected to rise, which could lead to higher prices in retail.
Experts urge the authorities to consider compensation mechanisms for the market:
- Temporary reduction of excise taxes
- Reducing the VAT rate on fuel
- However, such measures require coordination with international partners and may affect budget revenues.
Is there a chance for a price reduction?
Analysts advise drivers to keep a close eye on the market. Although the likelihood of a significant reduction in prices is low, the stabilization of global prices may mitigate the situation.
