This is why the Kremlin is afraid of Tomahawks: expert reveals how many missiles are needed to destroy Alabuga
14 October 21:37
The Kremlin is most concerned about the ability of Tomahawk missiles to accurately hit critical infrastructure at long range. It is this threat – combined with the high efficiency of intelligence and coordination of strikes – that is forcing the Russian leadership to strengthen the security of factories and technology parks that produce ammunition and UAVs.
In an exclusive commentary for "Komersant Ukrainian", aviation expert Konstantin Krivolap detailed how many precision cruise missiles would be needed to effectively disable the production of Shaheds at the Alabuga industrial site, and why even relatively small batches of Tomahawks could pose a serious problem for Russian logistics.
“Count 80% of them will not pass. That is, out of 10, 2 will come in. For Alabuga, 6-8 missiles are needed to hit the production, and 20-30 of these missiles should be launched, respectively,” Konstantin Krivolap
The expert emphasizes that the calculations are based on the actual ratio between the missiles launched and those that hit the target:
“Just like the X-101 comes in. The X-101 is a modern, good missile, and we say 80%. Do you think the Russians will do it differently? I am proceeding from these calculations,” Konstantin Krivolap
These figures make it possible to understand the logic of strike planning: to achieve several guaranteed hits on a protected industrial facility, a reserve and mass of launches are needed, taking into account the intercept and failure rate.
However, the main effect of the Tomahawk supply will not be to “bombard” the enemy with a mass of shells, but to be able to deliver targeted, coordinated strikes on narrow but critical points – supply chains, assembly units, test sites. Even a few successful hits can lead to long downtime and the reorientation of resources to repair and defense.
Precision weapons work in tandem with real-time intelligence and correction. That’s why the effect of 6-8 hits on the Alabuga can be much more than simple arithmetic.
“And if something hits there, it’s clear where,” Kryvolap adds.
“Is it inevitable soon? The Kremlin reacts to the prospect of Tomahawk delivery to Kyiv”
As discussions continue in Kyiv and Washington about the possible delivery of long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles, the topic is causing panic and a media wave of statements in the Kremlin. Russian Telegram channels and official sources warn of the “consequences” of the transfer of such missiles, while the President’s Office and Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself openly name possible funding mechanisms, ranging from NATO programs to frozen Russian assets.
The pro-Kremlin Telegram channel writes that “deliveries of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine are undesirable, but seem to be inevitable.” According to theKremlin Snuffbox channel, a wave of comments has been launched in the Russian information field – from military correspondents to politicians – predicting both military and political consequences for bilateral relations between Moscow and Washington.
“The Kremlin circles have already ‘accepted’ that the supply is a matter of time,“ Kremlin Snuffbox sources
The reaction of the Russian Defense Ministry in public statements is also laconic: the Russian agency assures that it is ready to shoot down US-made missiles, but at the same time admits that due to the long range, “a lot of important objects” fall into the target zone, so their protection should be a priority.
Russian sources also emphasize the risk of increasing production of strike systems in Russia and its allies, which, in their opinion, poses additional threats.
However, while there is no final decision on transfers and funding, the Tomahawk issue will remain a geopolitical trigger with a significant impact on military logistics, defense strategy and bilateral relations between the West and Russia.
