The parade is under threat: drones paralyze air traffic over Moscow, Vucic fails to arrive, and Xi Jinping is still in the sky
7 May 2025 18:02
Russia is preparing for its main propaganda holiday, May 9, but the arrival of foreign leaders is in doubt. Due to massive drone attacks and intensified Russian air defense, air traffic in the country is in a state of chaos. Hundreds of flights have already been canceled and delayed, and some leaders have not even been able to fly to Moscow. Russian propaganda, in turn, is launching “horror stories” about the mythical “Oreshnik”. Why May 9 has become not a holiday but a challenge for Putin, what kind of blow Russia can expect on May 9, and why Moscow is a legitimate military target any day during the war – in the article
Baku instead of Moscow
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic’s plane en route to Moscow was forced to make an emergency landing in Baku. According to Serbian media, the flight was rerouted due to the activity of Russian air defense. This may be the result of another wave of drone attacks on Russian targets, which makes it impossible to maintain stable air traffic even for high-profile guests.
Xi Jinping is already in the sky – but will he land in Moscow?
Chinese television has reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping has taken off from Beijing for Moscow. However, whether he will reach the Russian capital remains an open question. The air situation over Russia is unpredictable, and the level of threats is unprecedented even by Russian standards.
Russian airports, including Moscow, were virtually paralyzed from May 6 to 7. “Aeroflot canceled more than 100 flights in just one day, and more than 140 flights were either canceled or delayed. Not only Sheremetyevo, Domodedovo, and Vnukovo airports are in chaos, but also regional airports: Kazan, Tambov, and Nizhny Novgorod. Airlines are forced to redirect planes to alternate airfields, and passengers are forced to refund or reschedule flights.
Obviously, some of the guests will make it to Moscow, but Putin cannot guarantee their safety at the May 9 parade, and the dictator’s image is under attack.
“Ukraine will not hit Xi Jinping, but other targets are open”
The emergence of the Chinese leader could change the dynamics of events in the skies over Moscow. About this in an exclusive commentary
“We must understand that Ukraine will not terrorize Xi Jinping in any way. We are not in that position. This is a huge country, on whose goodwill we depend very much,” emphasizes Ivan Stupak.
According to the expert, if Ukrainian intelligence learns that the Chinese leader is flying to Moscow, the strikes will be immediately stopped.
“Therefore, if there is a report that Xi Jinping is flying to Moscow, any attacks on airfields and on Moscow will be immediately stopped. I also do not rule out that the Chinese embassy there will say just two or three words – “stop” – and Ukraine will immediately stop,” Ivan Stupak said.
However, the situation with Russian airspace remains tense. According to the expert, Moscow is literally jammed with air defense systems that were deployed to the capital to protect it on the eve of May 9. Stupak reminds that Ukraine has been bombarding Moscow for several days now, with nearly 300 air defense systems being deployed there. Both radars and launchers are there to repel a future Ukrainian attack. The military expert also adds an apt metaphor.
“It’s like when you try to wrap yourself in a blanket at night – you pull it over your head, your head is covered, but your legs are completely open. We are forcing the Russian Federation to pull as much as they can to Moscow and the Moscow region. But on the day of May 9, we are going to attack those regions, those locations, like those legs that were left without air defense blanket,” Ivan Stupak
I would like to add that from May 6 to 7, a number of important military facilities in Russia were successfully attacked.
- A fiber optic systems plant was hit in Saransk
- In Tula, the Design Bureau of Instrumentation JSC, one of the flagships of the Russian military-industrial complex, specializing in the development of modern weapons systems, was attacked.
- SPLAV, the main developer of multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) in Russia, was also attacked.
Russian propaganda again targeted Oreshnik: why?
On the eve of May 9, the Russian propaganda machine reached a new level of hysteria – now it is using the “Oreshnik”. This is the name given to another fictional “retaliatory weapon” that the Kremlin, according to the Mash and INSIDER-T telegram channels, threatens Kyiv with in the event of a Ukrainian attack on Moscow.
Citing anonymous “analysts,” “sources,” and “insiders,” Mash writes that Putin has allegedly already identified targets for the Oreshnik in the Ukrainian capital, and in the event of any attack on Moscow on May 9, Russia will strike back immediately. This “news” was picked up and relayed by pro-Kremlin websites like NEWS.ru and a number of anonymous pro-Russian telegram channels.
The rhetoric is clear: to intimidate. The wording is aggressive, but without facts. There is no evidence of the existence of the Oreshnik as a real type of weapon or system. And Russian “Insiders” have long been known as a technology of psychological pressure, not a source of reliable information.
In response to this, here are the facts. Overnight, Russia fired 4 ballistic missiles and 142 drones at Ukraine, half of which were Shahideen. Can Putin surprise us again? This is a rhetorical question. But it is important to remember that when Russia starts talking about a “retaliatory strike,” it almost always means that it is already happening or is planned regardless of Ukraine’s actions.
Military expert Ivan Stupak believes that this is nothing more than an information manipulation aimed solely at intimidating the residents of the Ukrainian capital and forcing Ukraine to refrain from striking Moscow on the eve of May 9.
“The logic is simple: we threaten with Oreshnik, Ukrainians get scared, stop striking Moscow, and then the Kremlin has a “smooth ride” on May 9. They walked around Red Square, held a parade, flew overhead, drank a hundred grams of buckwheat, and everything was fine,” Stupak sneers.
According to the expert, this is more of a media game and an element of psychological warfare than a real military threat. Nevertheless, the Kremlin’s reaction demonstrates that the fear of Ukrainian strikes is deep and quite real.
Why Moscow is a legitimate military target: what’s next to Red Square
Moscow and the surrounding area are an important military center for Russia, and that is why Ukrainian strikes on these targets are legitimate. Headquarters, bases, training facilities, and air defense systems that support the war against Ukraine are concentrated in the Russian capital.
In the center of Moscow, a few hundred meters from Red Square, are located:
- The Kremlin Regiment, which guards the president and participates in parades.
- The building of the Russian Defense Ministry – air defense systems have already been installed on its roof.
- Moscow Higher Combined Arms School – trains new officers.
- The former building of the Strategic MissileForces Academy – historically played a strategic role.
In the vicinity of Moscow there are:
- Chkalovsky Air Base – serves military aircraft and the space program.
- Kubinka and Klin are bases from which combat aircraft take off.
- the 147th automobile base of the Ministry of Defense – logistics for parades and the leadership of the Russian Federation.
- Taman and Kantemyriv Divisions – participated in the invasion of Ukraine.
These objects are not only symbols, but also elements of the Russian military machine. Their appearance in the area of drone strikes or sabotage is not a matter of politics, but of the right to self-defense. So, while Moscow is preparing for the parade and Russian airports are feverishly attacked by drones, the Kremlin is once again facing the reality of war: Air defense is not infinite, and the symbolic “show-off” with foreign leaders is under great threat.
